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Overview Apple releases its FY2026 Q4 results after the close on Monday November 2, at roughly 4:30 p.m. Eastern, with the conference call at 5:00 p.m. Eastern, corresponding to 05:30 and 06:00 SingapOverview Apple releases its FY2026 Q4 results after the close on Monday November 2, at roughly 4:30 p.m. Eastern, with the conference call at 5:00 p.m. Eastern, corresponding to 05:30 and 06:00 Singap

Apple Q4 2026 Earnings Preview: Can iPhone Revenue Support Holiday Guidance?

Overview

 
Apple releases its FY2026 Q4 results after the close on Monday November 2, at roughly 4:30 p.m. Eastern, with the conference call at 5:00 p.m. Eastern, corresponding to 05:30 and 06:00 Singapore time on November 3. The quarter covers June 28 to September 26. Neither the results nor the call had occurred as of this article's verification point.
 
The report carries a structural limitation that determines what it can show. The iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max went on sale September 18 against a quarter ending September 26, so the period contains nine days of new-model sales. The iPhone Duo, Apple's first foldable, went on sale October 23 with pre-orders opening October 16, contributing nothing to the quarter. iPhone revenue in this report therefore rests mainly on the previous generation, and real demand for the new cycle sits outside the statements.
 
Two further developments the brief does not mention carry more weight. First, John Ternus became chief executive on September 1, a transition that occurred inside the reported quarter, making November 2 his first earnings call as CEO, with Tim Cook moving to executive chairman. Second, per Loop Capital's supply chain checks, the standard iPhone 18, iPhone 18e and iPhone Air 2 are not expected until spring 2027, meaning Apple enters the entire holiday season without a new lower-priced flagship and with a new-model lineup consisting only of the $1,199 Pro, the $1,299 Pro Max and the $1,999 Duo.
 
Taken together, the figure that matters is the December-quarter guidance. Consensus has already written the slowdown in: December-quarter revenue consensus sits near $153.44 billion for roughly 6.7% growth, with EPS near $2.90 for roughly 2.0% growth, against actual growth of 16% and 19% in the year-ago quarter.
 
This article covers the release timing, what the quarter actually contains, the gaps between guidance and the various consensus figures, the composition of gross margin, and the holiday lineup and revenue recognition.
 
 

Key Takeaways

 
The release falls on Monday November 2, unlike the Thursday timing of the two most recent reports. Results arrive around 4:30 p.m. Eastern with the call at 5:00 p.m., which is 05:30 and 06:00 Singapore time on November 3.
 
The quarter contains nine days of iPhone 18 Pro sales and zero iPhone Duo. The new Pro models went on sale September 18 against a September 26 quarter end, while the Duo went on sale October 23, landing in FY2027 Q1.
 
This is John Ternus's first earnings call as CEO, with Kevan Parekh continuing as CFO. The transition took effect September 1, inside the reported quarter.
 
Apple's own guidance calls for revenue growth of 9% to 11%, gross margin of 47% to 48%, and mid-teens iPhone growth. The margin guidance includes roughly one point from tariff refunds.
 
The margin cushion is thinning. Q3's 50.1% included roughly two points of tariff refunds, leaving about 48.1% underlying, while this quarter's guidance implies roughly 46% to 47% once refunds are stripped out.
 
Memory costs are the driver and management expects them to keep rising. The CFO said memory costs explained more than 100% of the sequential change in gross margin, and the CEO described the situation as a hundred-year flood in memory pricing.
 
The new iPhone cycle is lower volume at higher prices. Per Goldman Sachs, shipments fell roughly 4% year over year while average selling prices rose roughly 20%, with orders shifting toward higher-priced models.
 
iPhone Duo shipping estimates have slipped to January 2027. Within about five hours of pre-orders opening, every storage configuration moved into January, placing that revenue in FY2027 Q2 rather than the holiday quarter.
 

Timing, Quarter Coverage and a Time Zone Detail

 
Item
Eastern time
Pacific time
Singapore time
Results release
November 2, around 4:30 p.m.
Around 1:30 p.m.
November 3, 05:30
Conference call
November 2, 5:00 p.m.
2:00 p.m.
November 3, 06:00
 
The quarter runs June 28 to September 26 as FY2026 Q4, which is also the close of Apple's 2026 fiscal year, so full-year figures typically appear on the call as well.
 
The release date is Monday November 2, differing from the two most recent reports this article verified, FY2025 Q4 on Thursday October 30, 2025 and FY2026 Q1 on Thursday January 29, 2026. This article records that fact without asserting whether a Monday is historically unusual for Apple.
 
One time zone detail invites error. US daylight saving time ends on Sunday November 1, so November 2 falls in standard time. Converting from 1:30 p.m. Pacific Standard Time gives 21:30 Coordinated Universal Time and 05:30 in Singapore, while 2:00 p.m. gives 22:00 and 06:00. One source this article checked labels these times PDT and EDT, which is a slip given that daylight saving ended on November 1, though its Singapore conversions match standard time.
 

This Is Ternus's First Call as CEO

 
Apple announced the leadership change on April 20, 2026, effective September 1: John Ternus, previously senior vice president of Hardware Engineering, became chief executive, while Tim Cook moved to executive chairman of the board and continues to assist with certain company matters including engagement with policymakers. Ternus joined the executive team in 2021. Kevan Parekh continues as CFO.
 
The significance of that date is that the transition falls inside the reported quarter, and November 2 is the first time Ternus issues quarterly guidance as CEO. For anyone who follows how a company frames its numbers, the wording of the guidance may matter more than the quarter itself, specifically whether it retains the framework Cook used for describing supply constraints and product timing. Both parties stressed continuity in the announcement, with Cook saying Ternus "is without question the right person to lead Apple into the future."
 

What the Quarter Structurally Cannot Show

 
The brief notes that the iPhone Duo falls outside this report, which is correct, but placing both launch timelines side by side produces a stronger conclusion.
 
Model
Announced
Pre-orders
On sale
Fiscal quarter
Days in this quarter
iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max
September 9
September 12
September 18, plus 20 more countries September 25
FY2026 Q4
9
iPhone Duo
September 9
October 16
October 23, plus 28 more countries October 30
FY2027 Q1
0
Standard iPhone 18, 18e, Air 2
Not announced
Not open
Expected spring 2027
FY2027 Q2 or later
0
 
The iPhone 18 Pro series went on sale September 18 in more than 65 countries and regions, and with the quarter ending September 26, that is nine days inclusive of first and last. The second wave of 20 countries on September 25 contributes two days. The Duo's pre-orders did not open until October 16 with sales from October 23, both after the quarter closed, so it falls outside FY2026 Q4 whether measured by order or by delivery.
 
This means Apple's guidance for mid-teens iPhone growth rests almost entirely on carried-over demand for the iPhone 17 family plus nine days of new hardware. Whether iPhone revenue beats or misses this quarter, it supports little inference about the strength of the new cycle, because the window is too short and excludes the highest-priced product in the range.
 

The New Cycle Is Lower Volume at Higher Prices

 
The quantified description of the new cycle currently available comes from Goldman Sachs on October 27: iPhone 18 series shipments fell roughly 4% year over year while average selling prices rose roughly 20%, which the firm summarizes as lower volume at higher prices. Multiplying the two gives roughly 15% revenue growth, since 0.96 times 1.20 equals 1.152, consistent with its forecast of 15% iPhone revenue growth for the quarter.
 
The order mix the firm describes runs as follows: Pro Max orders up 10% to 15%, Pro orders down 10% to 15%, and Duo orders up roughly 30%, shifting the mix toward higher-priced models. Its attribution covers the split launch cycle, the absence of a base model, and industry-wide memory and component constraints.
 
The timing of the pricing effect also warrants attention. The Pro and Pro Max each carry a $100 increase, but per the firm, that adjustment is only partly reflected this quarter, with the full effect arriving in the December quarter. That is another reason the centre of gravity shifts to the holiday period.
 
On the relationship between Apple's iPhone 18 Pro order cuts and memory costs, see our earlier analysis of iPhone 18 Pro orders and memory costs.
 

Guidance, Expectations and the Gaps Between Three Sets of Figures

 
Apple gave full guidance for this quarter on the July Q3 call through CFO Kevan Parekh.
 
Guidance item
Content
Total revenue growth
9% to 11%, including roughly 2.5 points of sequential currency headwind
iPhone revenue growth
Mid-teens on a reported basis
Services growth
Roughly in line with the June quarter after removing about 2.5 points of currency impact
Gross margin
47% to 48%, including roughly one point from tariff refunds
Operating expenses
$19.1B to $19.4B
Other income and expense
About $350M, excluding mark-to-market on minority investments
Tax rate
About 16.5%
 
Against the year-ago base of $102.47 billion, 9% to 11% implies $111.69 billion to $113.74 billion.
 
It should be said that no single market consensus exists, and the figures differ by provider.
 
Source
Total revenue
EPS
iPhone
Services
Gross margin
Apple guidance
9% to 11% growth
Not guided
Mid-teens growth
In line with June quarter ex-currency
47% to 48%
Zacks consensus
$112.95B, up 10.2%
$1.98, up 7%
$57.18B, up 16.6%
$31.50B, up 9.6%
About 47.5% implied from segments
Another provider's normalized consensus
$113.36B, up 10.6%
$1.9782, up 6.9%
Not given
Not given
Not given
Goldman Sachs forecast
$113.598B, up 11%
$2.01
$56.561B, up 15%
$31.521B, up 10%
47.8%
 
Two points stand out. The Zacks consensus for iPhone growth of 16.6% sits above Apple's own mid-teens guidance, while Goldman's 15% falls inside it. And Goldman's revenue forecast of $113.598 billion sits close to the upper bound of Apple's guidance at $113.74 billion, effectively assuming the company reaches the high end.
 
Revisions have run downward. The Zacks EPS consensus fell roughly 1% over the past 30 days, while another provider's figures show the quarterly EPS estimate declining from $2.0179 ninety days ago to $1.9782.
 

EPS Growth Is Running Slower Than Revenue Growth

 
Placing the growth rates side by side yields a clearer conclusion.
 
Quarter
Revenue growth
EPS growth
Gap
FY2026 Q1, December 2025, actual
16%
19%
EPS faster by 3 points
FY2026 Q3, June 2026, actual
16%
29%
EPS faster by 13 points
FY2026 Q4, this quarter, consensus
10.2% to 10.6%
6.9% to 7.0%
EPS slower by about 3 points
FY2027 Q1, December 2026, consensus
About 6.7%
About 2.0%
EPS slower by about 5 points
 
The relationship inverts this quarter. EPS grew faster than revenue in the two prior quarters and grows slower in the next two, with the gap widening. It should be noted that Q3's 29% includes $0.11 per share from tariff refunds, so stripping that out narrows the gap, though not the direction.
 
EPS growth persistently trailing revenue growth means the pressure sits below the revenue line. The specific location is gross margin.
 

Gross Margin: A Thinning Tariff Cushion as Memory Costs Take Over

 
This quarter's gross margin guidance of 47% to 48% looks like a mild step down from Q3's actual 50.1%. But the two figures contain different amounts of one-off benefit, so comparing them directly understates the deterioration.
 
Item
FY2026 Q3 actual
FY2026 Q4 guidance
Reported gross margin
50.1%
47% to 48%
Of which tariff refund benefit
About 2 points
About 1 point
Excluding refunds
About 48.1%
About 46% to 47%
 
The decline excluding refunds runs 1.1 to 2.1 points, while the reported basis appears to show a decline of 2.1 to 3.1 points. The direction is the same but the composition differs: roughly one point of the reported decline comes from the refund benefit halving rather than from operational deterioration. Goldman Sachs uses the same two ranges in its own work, citing 46% to 47% excluding tariff refunds against 47% to 48% including them, consistent with the derivation above.
 

Memory Costs Are the Driver

 
The CFO's wording on the Q3 call was that memory costs explained more than 100% of the sequential change in gross margin. The CEO said Apple expected to pay even higher memory costs in the September quarter, partly offset by carry-in inventory and lower non-memory component costs, and expected memory pricing to keep rising beyond September. Another source this article checked quotes him describing the situation as a hundred-year flood in memory pricing.
 
Per Goldman's analysis, Apple paid higher memory costs this quarter while realizing only part of its own price increases, producing near-term margin pressure, with the full pricing pass-through arriving in the December quarter. That is the same phenomenon as the pricing timing described above, viewed from the cost side.
 

Supply Constraints Are Expected to Worsen Significantly

 
This is the line in the guidance most easily overlooked and most clearly directional. The CFO said the impact of supply constraints was expected to increase significantly sequentially, affecting iPhone, Mac and iPad. The CEO attributed the constraints mainly to advanced process nodes and said demand had exceeded the company's forecasts, with his wording at the time being that the company was seeing some very significant constraints.
 
So if revenue lands in the lower half of the guided range this quarter, the first task is to distinguish insufficient demand from insufficient supply, because the two carry opposite implications for later quarters. Goldman additionally cites capacity limits at advanced nodes and possible DRAM delays for the A20 Pro.
 

The Holiday Quarter: A Lineup Gap, Revenue Recognition and Two Banks

 
The December quarter is where the new information in this report actually sits, and it faces three simultaneous constraints.
 

The Lineup Gap

 
Per Loop Capital's supply chain checks of October 22, the standard iPhone 18, iPhone 18e and iPhone Air 2 are not expected until spring 2027. Apple therefore enters the holiday season without its customary lower-priced new flagship, with a new-model lineup limited to the Pro from $1,199, the Pro Max from $1,299 and the Duo from $1,999. The firm also notes that smartphone market research attributed much of Apple's third-quarter shipment decline to the missing base model.
 

When Revenue Gets Recognized

 
The Duo's supply situation pushes revenue recognition into a later quarter still. Per TechRadar's record of October 16, shipping estimates moved to late December 2026 or early 2027 within roughly 25 minutes of pre-orders opening, and within about five hours all four storage configurations in both colours had slipped to January 2027. Over the same period the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max showed estimates from late October to mid-November. Separate reporting on October 21 indicated Apple stores would have limited Duo availability for walk-in customers.
 
Apple recognizes product revenue when control transfers, so orders carrying January 2027 shipping estimates produce revenue in FY2027 Q2, the quarter ending March 2027, rather than the holiday quarter. On that basis the Duo's revenue distributes as nothing this quarter, only the units actually delivered by late December in the holiday quarter, and the remainder in the quarter after.
 
Put differently, the intensity of pre-order demand and holiday-quarter revenue are separated by manufacturing capacity, with no direct correspondence between them. Apple has reportedly raised its Duo production orders, though this article could not verify the quantity or timetable.
 

What the Two Banks Actually Disagree About

 
Item
Loop Capital, October 22
Goldman Sachs, October 27
Rating
Downgraded from Buy to Hold
Buy
Price target
Cut from $370 to $330
Raised from $360 to $390
December quarter revenue
Not given
$151.2B, below consensus
December quarter EPS
Not given
$2.88, below consensus
December quarter gross margin
Not given
46.8%, below consensus
December quarter iPhone shipments
79 million, from 85 million
Not given
2027 iPhone revenue
Cut from $315B to $285B
Growth of 7% forecast
 
The two targets sit $60 apart, and against a share price of roughly $344.51 around October 26, Loop's $330 implies roughly 4% downside while Goldman's $390 implies roughly 13% upside.
 
But the two do not disagree about the operating facts. The split launch cadence, the missing base model, memory and component constraints, and the lower-volume higher-price structure all appear in both accounts. The disagreement is about valuation.
 
That shows up with particular clarity in the composition of Goldman's revision. Its price target rose from $360 to $390, an increase of roughly 8.3%, while its valuation multiple rose from 37 times to 40 times, an increase of roughly 8.1%. The two are nearly equal, and its earnings per share estimates for FY2026 through FY2028 are essentially unchanged at $8.89, $9.16 and $9.76. The target increase therefore comes almost entirely from multiple expansion rather than from an upgrade to earnings, with the firm attributing it to greater confidence in the replacement cycle following the Duo's launch.
 
Loop took the opposite route and moved its earnings-side assumptions. Its core judgement is that roughly 13 million iPhone shipments cut from Apple's 2026 production plans may never be recovered, having previously held that memory and processor shortages had only deferred them into 2027, a view its latest supply chain checks led it to abandon.
 
One measurement issue needs flagging. Loop cut its average selling price estimate from $1,239 to $1,123 while Goldman describes iPhone 18 series selling prices as up roughly 20% year over year. These appear contradictory but are not the same quantity. The first is a revision to the firm's own estimate and the second a year-over-year change, and the source this article checked does not state which period Loop's figure covers. Its shipment forecast and its average selling price should therefore not be multiplied to derive revenue, and the two firms' price figures should not be compared directly.
 
On where the share price sits, see our Apple stock technical analysis. As of around October 26, Apple traded near $344.51 for a market capitalization of roughly $5.07 trillion, about 1.4% above $5 trillion, up roughly 26.65% for the year, at roughly 40 times trailing and 35 times forward earnings. To follow how prices actually respond around the release, view AAPL stock perpetual futures on MEXC.
 

Which Results Would Change Expectations

 
The following explains the measures rather than forecasting them.
 
December-quarter gross margin guidance ranks first. Guidance above 47% would indicate pricing pass-through running ahead of memory costs, while 46% or lower would align with Goldman's 46.8% and indicate that cost pressure remains unoffset even in the quarter where pricing is fully reflected. The reference points are roughly 46% to 47% excluding refunds this quarter and 48.2% in the year-ago quarter.
 
The shape of the December revenue range matters more than its midpoint. Consensus implies roughly 6.7% growth, and Goldman expects the company to guide to low-to-mid single-digit growth. An unusually wide range typically reflects supply uncertainty rather than demand uncertainty, consistent with management's earlier statement that supply constraints would increase significantly sequentially.
 
This quarter's iPhone revenue should be read against guidance rather than consensus. Apple guided to mid-teens, the Zacks consensus sits at 16.6% above that guidance, and Goldman sits at 15% inside it. A result between 14% and 16% meets the company's own guidance without necessarily meeting every provider's consensus.
 
The composition of Services deserves attention. Per Goldman's estimates, Services runs roughly $31.521 billion this quarter for 10% growth, within which the App Store contributes roughly $7.48 billion at 2% growth, decelerating from 3% in the June quarter, while revenue related to search engine traffic acquisition costs runs roughly $7.2 billion at 11% growth. Two lines of similar size growing roughly nine points apart make the composition more informative than the total.
 
Mac and iPad carry the widest disagreement. Goldman forecasts Mac flat against the consensus it cites at 12% growth, and iPad up 6% against consensus at 1%. The Zacks figures run Mac up 9.6% and iPad down 5.9%. Three mutually inconsistent sets indicate that predictability for these two lines has fallen sharply under supply constraints.
 
How the call is worded. This is Ternus's first earnings call as CEO, and whether the guidance language retains the prior framework for describing supply and product timing is itself information.
 
For crypto assets the transmission is indirect, since a single company's results mainly affect the broad pricing environment through risk appetite and large-cap technology weightings. This release additionally layers a lineup gap, revenue recognition spanning quarters, and a valuation multiple at elevated levels, so it supports no directional judgement.
 

Exclusive View from James Mitchell

 
For James Mitchell, the thing worth stating plainly about this report is that it structurally cannot answer the question the market cares about.
 
Place two dates side by side. The iPhone 18 Pro series went on sale September 18 and the fiscal quarter ended September 26, which is nine days inclusive of both ends. The iPhone Duo went on sale October 23 with pre-orders opening only on October 16, both after the quarter closed, so its contribution is zero days. Apple's guidance for mid-teens iPhone growth therefore has a numerator consisting almost entirely of carried-over iPhone 17 demand plus nine days of new hardware, and excluding the highest-priced product in the range. Whether that number beats or misses, it cannot establish how strong the new cycle is. The December-quarter guidance is where the new information lives, and the value of this report sits in that one sentence rather than in three decimal places of the quarter just ended.
 
The brief omits something I consider weightier. The standard iPhone 18, 18e and Air 2 are not expected until spring 2027, which means Apple goes through the entire holiday season without a new lower-priced flagship, with a new lineup of only $1,199, $1,299 and $1,999. Apple has always worked the holiday quarter with a high-low spread, and this year the high end is unusually heavy while the low end is simply empty. The pattern Goldman measured fits exactly: shipments down roughly 4% year over year with selling prices up roughly 20%, Pro Max orders up 10% to 15%, Pro orders down 10% to 15%, Duo orders up roughly 30%. That is a structural shift, whether chosen or forced, and its full-year effect will not be visible until FY2027.
 
On revenue recognition I found a specific timestamp worth adding to the desk's reference notes. Duo pre-orders opened October 16, estimates moved to late December or early 2027 within roughly 25 minutes, and within about five hours every storage configuration had slipped to January 2027. Apple recognizes product revenue when control transfers, so orders estimated for January produce revenue in FY2027 Q2 and never touch the holiday quarter at all. Pre-orders selling out and holiday revenue being secure are separated by manufacturing capacity, and any analysis that reads the first as implying the second has skipped that layer.
 
On gross margin there is a point that gets systematically understated. Guidance of 47% to 48% against Q3's actual 50.1% looks like a mild step down. But roughly two points of that 50.1% came from tariff refunds, and only about one point remains in this quarter's guidance. Excluding refunds the move runs from roughly 48.1% to roughly 46% to 47%, and a full point of the apparent reported decline is simply the refund benefit halving rather than operations worsening. Same direction, different composition, and that distinction determines which figure you can legitimately extrapolate into next quarter. Goldman works from the same two ranges, which matches my own derivation.
 
The growth table is the inference I hold with most confidence here. FY2026 Q1 came in at 16% revenue and 19% EPS; Q3 at 16% and 29%; this quarter's consensus at 10.2% to 10.6% and 6.9% to 7.0%; and the December quarter's at roughly 6.7% and roughly 2.0%. The relationship inverts this quarter: EPS ran ahead of revenue before and falls behind after, with the gap widening from three points to five. EPS persistently trailing revenue places the pressure below the revenue line, and the location is gross margin. Q3's 29% includes $0.11 per share of refunds, so stripping that narrows the gap without changing the inversion.
 
On the two banks I want to be more precise than the surface suggests, because this is not a bull-bear split. Loop went to Hold on October 22 with a $330 target; Goldman stayed at Buy on October 27 and raised its target to $390. But their descriptions of the operating facts are nearly identical: split cadence, missing base model, memory constraints, lower volume at higher prices, all accepted by both. The disagreement is valuation. And the composition of Goldman's revision makes that unusually clear: the target rose from $360 to $390, up 8.3%, while the multiple rose from 37 times to 40 times, up 8.1%, the two nearly equal, with its FY2026 through FY2028 earnings estimates essentially untouched. The increase came almost entirely from multiple expansion rather than an earnings upgrade, which the firm attributes to greater confidence in the replacement cycle after the Duo launched. Loop moved the other variable, cutting earnings-side assumptions on the judgement that roughly 13 million shipments removed from 2026 production plans may never be recovered, and explicitly abandoning its earlier view that they were merely deferred into 2027. So the real question in this disagreement is how many multiples these earnings deserve, and at roughly 40 times trailing, the answer moves the share price more than any single quarter's figures.
 
One calculation I deliberately did not perform. Loop cut its average selling price estimate from $1,239 to $1,123 while forecasting 79 million December-quarter shipments. Multiplying those produces a very specific revenue figure, but the source I checked does not state which period that price covers, so the multiplication is not available. By the same token, its price cut and Goldman's roughly 20% year-over-year increase look contradictory while actually being a revision to an estimate and a year-over-year change, which are not the same quantity. Any analysis that lines up figures from different firms on different bases and performs arithmetic on them should first confirm they are the same kind of thing.
 
A final item the brief omits that I would put in the opening: John Ternus became CEO on September 1, a transition that happened inside the quarter being reported, and November 2 is the first time he issues guidance as chief executive, with Cook now executive chairman. For the numbers themselves this changes nothing, but whether the guidance language carries over and how supply constraints get characterized are themselves information on a first call after a handover.
 

FAQ

 

When does Apple report Q4 FY2026?

 
Apple reports after the US close on Monday November 2, at roughly 4:30 p.m. Eastern, with the conference call at 5:00 p.m. Eastern, corresponding to 1:30 p.m. and 2:00 p.m. Pacific. In Singapore that is 05:30 and 06:00 on November 3. Note that US daylight saving time ends on Sunday November 1, so November 2 falls in standard time and conversions should use Pacific Standard Time. The quarter covers June 28 to September 26.
 

Why does the iPhone Duo not count in this report?

 
The iPhone Duo was announced September 9, but pre-orders did not open until October 16 and sales began October 23 in more than 70 countries, with 28 more following October 30. The quarter ended September 26, so the product falls outside FY2026 Q4 whether measured by order or by delivery, landing instead in FY2027 Q1. Orders whose shipping estimates have slipped to January 2027 will produce revenue in FY2027 Q2 rather than the holiday quarter.
 

How many days of iPhone 18 Pro sales does this report contain?

 
Nine. The iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max went on sale September 18 in more than 65 countries and regions, and the quarter ended September 26, giving nine days inclusive of first and last. The second wave of 20 countries began September 25, contributing two days. iPhone revenue this quarter therefore rests mainly on carried-over demand for the previous generation.
 

What guidance did Apple give for this quarter?

 
On the July Q3 call, CFO Kevan Parekh guided to total revenue growth of 9% to 11% including roughly 2.5 points of sequential currency headwind, mid-teens reported iPhone revenue growth, Services growth roughly in line with the June quarter after removing about 2.5 points of currency impact, gross margin of 47% to 48% including roughly one point from tariff refunds, operating expenses of $19.1 billion to $19.4 billion, other income and expense of about $350 million, and a tax rate of about 16.5%. Against the year-ago base of $102.47 billion, the revenue guidance implies $111.69 billion to $113.74 billion.
 

What is the market expecting?

 
No single consensus exists and the figures differ by provider. The Zacks set runs revenue of $112.95 billion up 10.2%, EPS of $1.98 up 7%, iPhone of $57.18 billion up 16.6% and Services of $31.50 billion up 9.6%. Another provider's normalized figures run revenue of $113.36 billion and EPS of $1.9782. Goldman Sachs forecasts revenue of $113.598 billion, EPS of $2.01 and gross margin of 47.8%. Notably the Zacks iPhone growth rate sits above Apple's own mid-teens guidance while Goldman's 15% falls inside it. EPS estimates have been revised down recently on both bases.
 

Why is gross margin the key figure?

 
Because this quarter's guidance of 47% to 48% and Q3's actual 50.1% contain different amounts of tariff refund benefit, roughly one point and roughly two points respectively. Excluding refunds the move runs from about 48.1% to about 46% to 47%, a decline of 1.1 to 2.1 points, while roughly one point of the apparent reported decline comes solely from the refund benefit halving. The driver is memory costs, which the CFO said explained more than 100% of the sequential change, with the CEO expecting memory pricing to keep rising beyond September.
 

Why does the holiday guidance matter more than this quarter's results?

 
Because the quarter structurally excludes the main part of the new cycle, while the holiday quarter concentrates three variables: the standard iPhone 18, 18e and Air 2 are not expected until spring 2027, leaving the holiday season without a new lower-priced flagship; the $100 increases on Pro and Pro Max are only fully reflected from the December quarter; and the Duo's supply determines how its revenue splits between the holiday quarter and the one after. Consensus implies December-quarter revenue growth of roughly 6.7% and EPS growth of roughly 2.0%, against actual growth of 16% and 19% a year earlier.
 

What do the analysts actually disagree about?

 
Valuation rather than operating facts. Loop Capital downgraded from Buy to Hold on October 22 and cut its target from $370 to $330, on the judgement that roughly 13 million iPhone shipments removed from 2026 production plans may not be recovered, while cutting its December-quarter shipment forecast from 85 million to 79 million. Goldman Sachs maintained Buy on October 27 and raised its target from $360 to $390, but its earnings per share estimates are essentially unchanged while its valuation multiple rose from 37 times to 40 times, an increase close to the target increase, so that revision comes mainly from multiple expansion rather than an earnings upgrade. Both describe the split launch cadence, the missing base model, memory constraints and the lower-volume higher-price structure in the same terms.
 

Disclaimer

 
The information above is provided for general corporate financial and market information only and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, legal advice, tax advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. This article is a preview written before the results were published, verified on October 29, 2026 Singapore time, at which point Apple's FY2026 Q4 results had not been released; all figures herein are previously published historical data, company guidance or third-party forecasts, and none constitutes a forecast of actual results. The market expectations listed come from different data providers and investment banks whose bases, methods and dates differ, as set out in this article; no citable single market consensus exists, and any figure described as market expectations should carry its source. The Zacks and other provider consensus figures differ on revenue, EPS and segments, while Goldman Sachs and Loop Capital represent single-firm views rather than consensus. The spring 2027 timing for the standard iPhone 18, iPhone 18e and iPhone Air 2, and the report that Apple has raised iPhone Duo production orders, come from third-party supply chain checks and media reporting rather than Apple confirmation, and this article could not verify quantities or timetables. The iPhone Duo shipping estimates are a third party's observation at a specific moment and change continuously with inventory and capacity, so they do not represent current conditions. The gross margin ranges excluding tariff refunds are this article's derivation from the refund contribution the company disclosed rather than figures the company published directly. Loop Capital's average selling price revision and Goldman Sachs's year-over-year selling price change are not the same quantity, and the source checked does not state the period Loop's figure covers, so the two cannot be compared directly and its shipment forecast and selling price should not be multiplied to derive revenue. Apple's guidance assumes the tariff policies and tax arrangements in place at the time of the call, and policy changes could invalidate it. Management has stated that the impact of supply constraints is expected to increase significantly sequentially across iPhone, Mac and iPad, so revenue landing in the lower half of the guided range may reflect insufficient supply rather than insufficient demand, which carry different implications for later quarters. The share price, market capitalization and valuation multiples cited are values from around October 26 and change continuously with the market. Transmission between a single company's results and crypto asset prices is indirect and subject to multiple uncertainties, and no single data point supports a directional judgement. Crypto asset prices are highly volatile and leveraged products can produce losses exceeding the initial outlay. Readers should consult the original results and call materials published on Apple's investor relations pages before making any decision, judge against their own financial circumstances, investment objectives and risk tolerance, and consult a qualified professional where appropriate. The MEXC Crypto Pulse team accepts no liability for any direct or indirect loss arising from the use of this information.
 

About the Author

 
James Mitchell specializes in technical analysis, market trends, and trading strategies for both Bitcoin and altcoins. Based in London, he has over 10 years of experience in financial markets. Before joining MEXC Learn, James worked as a senior analyst at a leading European investment firm, where he developed expertise in risk management and quantitative trading. His transition to cryptocurrency markets began in 2017, and he has since become recognized for his data-driven approach. He holds a Master's degree in Financial Economics from the London School of Economics. His analytical approach combines traditional technical analysis with on-chain metrics to provide readers with actionable insights.
 
Areas of Expertise: Technical Analysis, Market Trends and Cycles, Trading Strategies, Bitcoin and Altcoin Analysis, Risk Management.
 

Research References

 
 
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