Nvidia Stock Technical Analysis: Can the $150 Billion Buyback Restart the NVDA Rally?

 

Nvidia closed at $230.61 on September 28, up about 2.5% on the session, and the catalyst was a capital return announcement rather than a product or earnings event. According to Nvidia's newsroom release, the board authorized an additional $150 billion under the existing repurchase program, lifting the remaining total authorization to $235 billion, with the company expecting to execute the full amount through fiscal 2028. It is the largest single increase to a buyback authorization on record, eclipsing the $110 billion Apple approved in 2024.

 

What makes the move interesting is its timing. Reuters reported that through Friday's close the stock was up just over 20% this year, broadly in line with the Nasdaq 100 but trailing AMD, which has more than doubled, and Intel, which has more than tripled. LSEG data cited in the same report put Nvidia at roughly 16.5 times 12-month forward earnings, its lowest multiple since January 2015 and well below a 15-year average near 30. A company that grew revenue 106% year over year last quarter is now reaching for a capital return playbook usually associated with mature businesses facing multiple compression.

 

 

 

The authorization changes the scale of capital return. At roughly $230 a share and about 24.1 billion shares outstanding, $235 billion corresponds to roughly one billion shares, close to 4% of the equity base. That is large enough to shape the earnings-per-share path on its own.

 

The stated timeline implies a sharp acceleration. Nvidia paid about $19.7 billion for repurchases in the second quarter of fiscal 2027. Completing $235 billion by the end of fiscal 2028 would require an average quarterly pace near double that level.

 

Fundamentals and valuation have diverged. Second-quarter revenue reached $96.2 billion with Data Center at $89.0 billion, up 117% year over year, yet the forward multiple sits at a decade low. The market is pricing durability, not current growth.

 

Margins and cash flow are shifting underneath. Third-quarter gross margin guidance of 74.0% is a full point below the 75.0% posted in the second quarter, while receivables and inventories climbed sharply and free cash flow turned lumpy.

 

The chart is testing the top of its range. Shares are back near the 52-week high of $236.54, making the $230 to $236 band the immediate test, with the 200-day moving average roughly $199.

 

 

 

An authorization is a ceiling, not a purchase. Sizing it against the market is the useful exercise. Per LSEG data, the $150 billion increase alone exceeds the market capitalization of about 84% of S&P 500 constituents. The $235 billion remaining total translates, at current prices, into roughly one billion shares, or close to 4% of Nvidia's outstanding equity.

 

The move is also part of a sequence rather than a one-off. Nvidia's first-quarter fiscal 2027 results disclosed an additional $80 billion authorization in May alongside a quarterly dividend increase from $0.01 to $0.25 per share. The fiscal 2026 report showed $41.1 billion returned to shareholders across that full year. Going from $80 billion to $150 billion within a single year marks a clear step change in cadence.

 

 

The second-quarter fiscal 2027 release shows approximately $26.0 billion returned to shareholders during the quarter, with $19.7 billion of actual cash paid for repurchases, and roughly $99.0 billion remaining under authorization at quarter end. Management says the $235 billion will be executed through fiscal 2028, which ends on January 30, 2028. Counting from late September 2026, that leaves roughly six quarters to absorb $235 billion, an average of nearly $39 billion per quarter.

 

The gap between that implied pace and current execution is the most informative part of the announcement. It implies either a step change in free cash flow or a willingness to lean on the balance sheet. The second-quarter figures suggest both are already in motion: long-term debt rose from $7.5 billion at the January year-end to $32.4 billion, with net proceeds from debt issuance of about $24.9 billion during the quarter. A company holding $22.4 billion of cash is simultaneously investing, repurchasing and borrowing.

 

 

 

Second-quarter revenue of $96.2 billion rose 18% sequentially and 106% year over year. Data Center revenue reached $89.0 billion, up 117%. GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins were both 75.0%, and diluted earnings per share came in at $2.46. Guidance for the third quarter is $108.0 billion give or take 2%, and the company stated explicitly that the outlook assumes no Data Center compute revenue from China.

 

Bloomberg reported that in August the company projected sales growth of 70% for the next fiscal year, and CNBC noted that Jensen Huang said earlier this month Nvidia would double the number of chips it sells in 2027. Neither the revenue trajectory nor the unit outlook reads as deceleration.

 

 

The market is not paying for the current growth rate. A 16.5 times forward multiple implies investors are underwriting a rapidly converging growth curve. Some analysts read the compression as evidence of slowing profit-growth expectations, with gross margin pressure the specific worry: the 74.0% third-quarter guide sits a full point below the quarter just reported.

 

An alternative reading is that the compression reflects doubt about the AI capital expenditure cycle itself rather than about Nvidia's competitive position. The two interpretations carry very different implications. The first is a question about earnings quality at the company level, the second a question about demand durability at the industry level. A buyback cannot answer the second. It can make the per-share arithmetic look better while the first is being resolved.

 

 

Semiconductor capital rotated this year. AMD's Data Center revenue more than doubled year over year in the second quarter, and the market has paid a premium for the credible second-source narrative in AI accelerators. Intel re-rated off a much lower base on turnaround and foundry optionality. Both currently trade at higher forward multiples than Nvidia. In 2026 the market has been paying for the change in growth rather than its absolute level.

 

Nvidia sits at a structural disadvantage in that rotation. Its base is too large for any growth rate to feel like a surprise. That is the logical starting point for a buyback of this size. When the multiple cannot expand on narrative, management can work on the denominator instead.

 

 

 

Nvidia's revenue curve depends on its customers' ability to spend. Research published by S&P Global Ratings in August projects combined hyperscaler capital expenditure above $1.3 trillion by 2027, while expecting all six of the largest hyperscalers to generate negative free operating cash flow in both 2026 and 2027, with recovery not projected until 2029. Its models generally assume a 2028 inflection point as monetization improves and capex growth moderates.

 

That forecast contains both the bull and bear case. Demand in absolute terms keeps expanding, but the funding mix is changing, with debt, leases and guarantees playing a larger role in financing AI infrastructure. For Nvidia, order visibility over the next several quarters looks intact while customer sensitivity to pricing and delivery terms is likely to rise.

 

 

Accounts receivable stood at $63.1 billion at the end of the second quarter, up from $38.5 billion in January, and inventories rose to $31.6 billion from $21.4 billion. Non-marketable securities climbed from $22.3 billion to $51.2 billion. Together these explain why free cash flow was $21.3 billion in the quarter after $48.6 billion in the one before it.

 

That volatility belongs in any assessment of how sustainable the repurchase pace is. First-half free cash flow of roughly $69.9 billion annualizes comfortably above the required run rate, but quarterly cash generation is no longer smooth. It is also the backdrop to the nearly $25 billion of debt issued during the quarter.

 

 

 

Price action has been contained in a fairly clean horizontal range for several months. Investtech's medium-term read frames it as support near $213 and resistance near $235, with the next support around $209 on a decisive break lower. Robinhood's quote data puts the 52-week range at $164.27 to $236.54, with the September 28 session spanning $224.51 to $233.21.

 

That makes $230 to $236 both the top of the range and the year's high zone. The buyback headline pushed the stock back into that area without resolving it. For trend followers, whether the stock can hold above $236 on convincing volume matters more than the announcement itself.

 

 

Financhill data as of the September 25 close put the 50-day simple moving average near $215.97, the 200-day near $199.47, and the 14-day relative strength index around 55.2. The moving average structure remains constructive, with the shorter average above the longer one, while momentum sits in neutral-to-firm territory rather than overbought.

 

The combination describes a healthy trend without urgency. The roughly $30 cushion to the 200-day average keeps the medium-term structure intact, while an RSI near 55 suggests the buyback did not trigger emotional chasing. The real test arrives in one of two forms: follow-through above $236, or the quality of the bid if price returns to $213.

 

For traders who want to track that structure outside regular US market hours, MEXC Global Asset Futures allow long and short positions settled in USDT, and the MEXC stock markets page shows live pricing across related instruments.

 

Want to keep trading Nvidia's swings after the US close? Go long or short on the NVIDIA contract with USDT margin and stay with the level that matters

 

 

 

The mechanism that lifts earnings per share depends on two conditions: the share count actually falls, and profits do not decline. If gross margin keeps sliding from 75.0%, the per-share benefit can be offset by contraction in the numerator. The picture is further complicated by the company's growing equity portfolio. Of the $59.69 billion in GAAP net income reported for the second quarter, about $7.77 billion came from gains on equity securities, which loosens the link between reported profit and operating cash generation.

 

Geopolitics adds another layer. The third-quarter guide excludes Chinese Data Center compute revenue entirely, which lowers the risk of a miss while also placing that revenue outside the model. Any policy shift in either direction would have an asymmetric effect on the outlook.

 

 

The next earnings report is the most direct test. Market data point to a late-November release for third-quarter fiscal 2027 results. Three things will be worth checking: whether actual repurchase payments move toward the roughly $39 billion quarterly pace implied by the timeline, whether gross margin holds the 74% guide, and whether receivables and inventory growth begins to converge with revenue growth.

 

At the industry level, hyperscaler capital expenditure guidance and whether the 2028 inflection assumption flagged by S&P Global Ratings is validated will determine if Nvidia's multiple can expand again. On the chart, $236 and $213 remain the two decision points for the coming weeks.

 

 

For James Mitchell, the significant part of this announcement is not the $150 billion headline but the fact that Nvidia reached for a mature-company capital return tool to answer what is still a growth-stock valuation question. When Apple authorized $110 billion in 2024, its core business was decelerating. Nvidia made a comparable move while Data Center revenue was compounding at 117% year over year. Identical financial action, entirely different commercial context, and that contrast is worth sitting with.

 

The most common misreading is treating authorization as commitment. A ceiling is not an obligation, and the pace can be adjusted at any time. At the current execution rate, $235 billion would take roughly twelve quarters to deploy; management's timeline implies about six. That gap has to be closed either by a step change in cash generation or by further balance sheet expansion. Long-term debt rising from $7.5 billion to $32.4 billion in a single quarter already supplies part of the answer. Funding repurchases with debt is a defensible financing choice, but it reduces the cushion available if demand turns.

 

The variables worth tracking are the relationship between three verifiable numbers: actual repurchase payments, quarterly free cash flow, and gross margin. If buyback intensity rises while margin holds at 74% and receivable growth converges toward revenue growth, a 16.5 times forward multiple is likely too cheap. If intensity rises alongside continued margin erosion and heavier working capital absorption, then the compression is not a market error but an early repricing of earnings quality. The $213 to $236 range gives that test a workable risk framework, where a break in either direction is the start of the evidence rather than the conclusion, and volume plus the behavior on the retest carry the real information.

 

Across assets, the episode matters for the whole AI complex. When the most central upstream supplier begins returning cash rather than committing all of it to capacity, the signal is ambiguous. It can mean management believes the shares are undervalued, or that the marginal return on reinvestment is declining. The available data does not separate those readings, and that is precisely why it is the most interesting open question of this cycle. AI-themed tokens and cross-market instruments such as tokenized equities tend to amplify that ambiguity rather than resolve it.

 

 

 

The immediate driver was the buyback announcement on September 28. Nvidia's board approved an additional $150 billion of repurchase authorization, lifting the remaining total to $235 billion, the largest single increase on record. Investors read it as a statement about how management views the current valuation, and the stock rose roughly 2.5% to $230.61 that session. Through the prior Friday's close, the shares were up just over 20% this year, well behind AMD and Intel.

 

 

The company says it expects to execute the $235 billion remaining program through fiscal 2028, which ends January 30, 2028. Counting from late September 2026, that leaves roughly six quarters and implies an average quarterly pace near $39 billion. For comparison, Nvidia paid about $19.7 billion for repurchases in the second quarter of fiscal 2027. Authorizations are ceilings rather than obligations, so the actual pace can be adjusted with market conditions.

 

 

By its own history it is a low reading. LSEG data puts it at the lowest level since January 2015, against a 15-year average near 30 times. A low multiple is not a thesis on its own, though, because it also encodes doubt about how long the profit growth can last. Third-quarter gross margin guidance of 74.0%, down from 75.0% in the quarter just reported, is one concrete expression of that doubt.

 

 

Sector rotation and base effects explain most of it. AMD's Data Center revenue more than doubled year over year in the second quarter, and the market has paid up for its position as the credible second source in AI accelerators. Intel re-rated from a much lower base on turnaround and foundry expectations. Nvidia's base is simply too large for any growth rate to surprise. Both peers currently trade at higher forward multiples than Nvidia does.

 

 

Recent price action has been contained between resistance near $235 and support near $213, with the next support around $209 on a decisive break lower. The 52-week high is $236.54. On moving averages, the 50-day sits near $215.97 and the 200-day near $199.47, still in a constructive alignment. These levels shift as new price data arrives and should be reviewed rather than treated as fixed.

 

 

Not necessarily. Repurchases lift earnings per share by shrinking the share count, but that benefit can be offset if profits decline. Execution pace, average purchase price and competing uses of cash all matter. Nvidia issued roughly $24.9 billion of debt in the second quarter, taking long-term debt from $7.5 billion to $32.4 billion, which means part of the capital return is being funded by an expanding balance sheet.

 

 

Three figures in the next quarterly report carry the most information: whether actual repurchase payments move toward the implied pace, whether gross margin holds the 74% guide, and whether receivables and inventory growth begins to slow. At the industry level, hyperscaler capital expenditure guidance is the key input, with S&P Global Ratings projecting combined spending above $1.3 trillion by 2027 while expecting free operating cash flow across that group to stay negative until 2029.

 

 

The information above is provided for general market information and analysis only and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, legal advice, tax advice or a recommendation to trade. Prices of equities, crypto assets and other related financial instruments can move sharply, and past performance, technical indicators and on-chain data do not guarantee future results. Share prices, valuation multiples, technical levels and financial figures cited here change with the market, and the latest company announcements, regulatory filings and platform disclosures should be treated as authoritative. Readers should conduct their own research and make decisions based on their own financial circumstances, investment objectives and risk tolerance, consulting a qualified professional where appropriate. The MEXC Crypto Pulse team accepts no liability for any direct or indirect loss arising from the use of this information.

 

 

James Mitchell specializes in technical analysis, market trends, and trading strategies for both Bitcoin and altcoins. Based in London, he has over 10 years of experience in financial markets. Before joining MEXC Learn, James worked as a senior analyst at a leading European investment firm, where he developed expertise in risk management and quantitative trading. His transition to cryptocurrency markets began in 2017, and he has since become recognized for his data-driven approach. He holds a Master's degree in Financial Economics from the London School of Economics. His analytical approach combines traditional technical analysis with on-chain metrics to provide readers with actionable insights.

 

His areas of expertise span technical analysis, market trends and cycles, trading strategies, Bitcoin and altcoin analysis, and risk management.

 

 

 

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