SINGAPORE – Global weather forecasters predict a strong El Niño weather phenomenon will build during the second half of 2026, threatening hotter and drier weather across much of Asia, while boosting rain in parts of North and South America.

What forecasters predict

Japan’s weather bureau says there is a 70% chance for an El Niño to emerge during the northern hemisphere summer, while Indian weather authorities warn the South Asian nation’s monsoon season could be below average for the first time in three years.

Weather officials in China expect El Niño conditions to run through the end of the year after emerging in May.

The US Climate Prediction Center sees a 61% chance of an El Niño during the period from May to July.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology is predicting below long-term median rain in eastern cropping regions between May and August, the first half of the country’s growing season.

Weather models indicate rain below, and temperatures above, normal across Australia, Southeast Asia, and India, said Chris Hyde, a meteorologist at weather intelligence firm Meteomatics with its headquarters in Switzerland.

“Overall, I think it’s going to be ideal growing conditions across the US Midwest this year,” he added. “We will have to watch the timing of El Niño, there could be some impacts to excessive moisture towards harvest.”

What are the El Niño, La Niña weather events?

They are opposite phases of the same climate system in the tropical Pacific.

El Niño is a natural pattern of unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

It builds when shifts in atmospheric pressure weaken, or even reverse, normally steady easterly trade winds, allowing eastward movement of warm waters piled up in the western Pacific, for a redistribution of heat, altering global weather patterns.

A La Niña forms when trade winds strengthen, pushing more warm water toward the western Pacific and allowing colder water to upwell in the east, driving sea surface temperatures below normal.

La Niña often brings above‑average rainfall to Australia and parts of Southeast Asia, but its impact on the Indian monsoon is variable, rather than uniformly strengthening.

In the Americas, La Niña tends to lead to wetter conditions in parts of northern South America and drier conditions in the southern United States. Overall, the Americas broadly turn drier.

An El Niño occurs every three to five years on average and a La Niña once every three to seven years, says Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology.

What was the impact of previous El Niño events?

El Niño events vary in severity and impact.

A strong one in 2015 and 2016 caused severe drought across Australia and Southeast Asia, while weakening the Indian monsoon. It reduced output of grain, palm oil, and sugar.

At the same time, excessive rain in parts of South America disrupted soybean and corn harvests.

A moderate El Niño in 2009 and 2010 brought dry weather that reduced yields of staples rice and wheat in India and Southeast Asia.

The strongest El Niño on record was in 1997–1998. It caused drought in some parts of Asia that slashed rice production, although India received average rainfall. Flooding in the Americas damaged crops.

The most recent instance of a strong La Niña was from 2020 to 2023. – Rappler.com