Bitcoin’s Most Watched Indicator Just Turned Green — Here’s What Happened Last Time

TLDR

• CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator flipped green on May 12, the first time since March 2023
• The last green signal in March 2023 preceded Bitcoin’s climb from $20,000 to above $73,000
• Analysts warn March 2022 was a false positive, so confirmation is not guaranteed
• Bitcoin must break the $82,000 resistance level to validate the signal
• Arthur Hayes sees $90,000 as the trigger for an explosive move toward $126,000

Bitcoin’s CryptoQuant Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has entered bullish territory for the first time since March 2023. The shift happened on May 12, with Bitcoin trading above $80,000 after a roughly 35% rebound from February lows of $60,000.

The indicator is built on CryptoQuant’s Profit and Loss Index, which combines the MVRV ratio, NUPL, and a comparison of Long-Term Holder and Short-Term Holder SOPR ratios. CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno said the move “often suggests that the worst phase of the correction has already passed.”

The previous confirmed green signal came in March 2023 and held until August 2024. During that period, Bitcoin climbed from around $20,000 to an all-time high above $73,000.

April ETF inflows into spot Bitcoin products reached $2.44 billion, the strongest single-month institutional accumulation since October 2025. Glassnode’s RHODL ratio currently sits at 4.5, the third-highest reading in Bitcoin’s history. The only comparable prior readings occurred at the 2015 and 2022 cycle bottoms.

Why Analysts Are Cautious

Not everyone is treating this as a confirmed bull market signal. Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, described the indicator as a regime-shift tool, not a predictive instrument. He said it is “most useful for identifying when bitcoin stops behaving like a bear-market asset.”

The key historical exception is March 2022. The indicator briefly turned green that month before Bitcoin extended its downtrend well into 2023. Analysts are pointing to that episode as a reason for caution now.

Moreno also flagged exhaustion in several secondary metrics. The Fear and Greed index is currently neutral, and the macroeconomic backdrop remains complex.

The $82,000 Level to Watch

Bitcoin has so far failed to decisively break above $82,000, a resistance level that has rejected multiple rally attempts. Moreno said clearing that ceiling is needed before the bullish signal can be considered confirmed by price action.

Arthur Hayes, CIO of Maelstrom and co-founder of BitMEX, said Bitcoin already found its cycle bottom at $60,000 earlier in 2026. He identified $90,000 as the level at which any rally would turn explosive, with the prior all-time high of $126,000 as the next target.

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