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Shorts appear to have been exiting the markets while billions of DOGE have been accumulated, hinting towards a healthy upswing
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To validate a bullish reversal, a Dogecoin price is required to secure the critical range around $0.10 that may further push the levels to higher targets
After a brief correction, the Dogecoin price has triggered a healthy rebound from the critical lows around $0.081. On the other hand, the latest on-chain, derivatives, and technical data suggest the correction may be entering its final stages. Combined with the DOGE price approaching a key technical support zone, these developments suggest that selling momentum may be fading.
While confirmation is still needed, the convergence of these three signals raises an important question for traders: Has Dogecoin already formed its bottom, setting the stage for a recovery toward—and potentially above—the psychologically important $0.10 level?
Nearly 30 Billion DOGE Accumulated at $0.081
The strongest argument for a potential Dogecoin bottom comes from Glassnode’s UTXO Realised Price Distribution (URPD) data, which shows that nearly 30 billion DOGE were last transacted at around $0.081. This represents one of the largest on-chain supply clusters and effectively establishes $0.081 as a major cost basis for a significant portion of holders.
Source: X
From a market-structure perspective, large realised supply concentrations often evolve into strong support zones. Investors who accumulated at these levels are generally less inclined to sell at a loss and are more likely to defend their positions if the price revisits the area. As a result, every dip toward $0.081 could attract fresh buying interest while reducing immediate downside pressure.
Open Interest Has Fallen Over 40% While Funding Turns Positive
The derivatives market is reinforcing the bullish case developing on-chain. Dogecoin’s Open Interest has declined from nearly $1.75 billion in early May to around $1.0 billion, representing a contraction of roughly 40-45%.
At the same time, the OI-weighted funding rate has rebounded from nearly -0.01% to approximately +0.008%, indicating improving bullish sentiment.
This combination is important because falling Open Interest suggests that excessive leverage has been flushed from the market. Instead of new speculative positions entering aggressively, many leveraged traders have already exited, reducing the risk of another cascade of forced liquidations. Meanwhile, the shift from negative to positive funding shows that traders are once again willing to pay to maintain long positions.
Can DOGE Reclaim $0.10 and Trigger a Larger Rally?
The technical structure suggests that Dogecoin is attempting to build a base after weeks of sustained selling pressure. Although the broader trend remains corrective, the repeated defense of the $0.081-$0.083 zone indicates that buyers are actively accumulating at lower levels rather than allowing another breakdown.
Momentum indicators also suggest that bearish pressure is weakening. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recovered to around 41, moving away from oversold territory and indicating that selling momentum is gradually fading. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram is beginning to compress, often an early sign that bearish momentum is losing strength before a potential bullish crossover.
The first hurdle for bulls lies around $0.090-$0.092, where recent selling pressure emerged. A successful break above this region could open the door to the next resistance at $0.096, followed by the psychologically important $0.10-$0.102 zone. Reclaiming this level would significantly improve market sentiment and confirm that buyers have regained short-term control.
On the downside, $0.081 remains the key level to watch. This area is supported by both the largest on-chain accumulation cluster of nearly 30 billion DOGE and recent price action. As long as DOGE holds above this support, the probability of a recovery remains favorable. However, a decisive daily close below $0.081 would invalidate the bullish thesis and expose the token to another wave of selling pressure.
Taken together, the technical setup aligns with the on-chain and derivatives data. While confirmation is still required, the evidence suggests that the Dogecoin (DOGE) price is attempting to transition from a correction phase into a potential recovery, with $0.10 serving as the critical breakout level that traders should monitor.
