XRP Price Nears Major Cycle Support as Wave Analysis Points Toward $8

Key Insights

• XRP price touched a fresh yearly low of $1.0079 before rebounding toward $1.06.
• XRP’s 90-day Realized Profit/Loss Ratio dropped to 0.33, matching levels last seen in August 2022.
• Dark Defender identified $0.93 as a possible Elliott Wave four completion zone.

XRP price slipped back toward the $1 level after another wave of selling pushed the token to its lowest price of the year. XRP briefly fell to $1.0079 before recovering toward $1.06, although it remained down about 8% over the past week.

The selloff also pushed a key on-chain profitability metric back to levels last seen during the 2022 bear market. While that may reflect growing capitulation, XRP still needs to defend the $0.93-$1.00 region before a broader recovery can develop.

XRP Price Defends the $1 Demand Zone

XRP crypto latest sell-off brought the token within a fraction of losing the $1 psychological level. Buyers responded near $1.0079, preventing an immediate breakdown and lifting price toward $1.05–$1.06.

The current support area extends from approximately $0.93 to $1.00. This range appears across several long-term charts and overlaps with previous breakout levels, rising trend support and a major Fibonacci extension.

A firm close below $0.93 would weaken the bottoming setup and expose lower support near $0.80. Such a move would also place XRP beneath the structure that has supported its broader recovery since 2020.

The first recovery barrier sits near $1.15. Above that, XRP price must reclaim $1.40 before challenging stronger resistance between $1.70 and $1.90.

The rebound from $1 therefore keeps the bullish scenario alive, but it does not yet confirm that the correction has ended.

XRP Crypto Realized Losses Return to Bear-Market Levels

Meanwhile, Glassnode data showed XRP’s 90-day Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has declined to 0.33. The metric last reached a similar level in August 2022, when the market remained under heavy pressure.

The ratio compared the value of coins sold at a profit with those sold at a loss. If the number is greater than 1, investors are realizing more gains than losses, and if the number is less than 1, they are realizing more losses than gains.

XRP’s transaction profit-loss ratio shows that more holders are selling at a loss than at a profit. The reading now stands near 0.33, meaning profitable transactions are much lower compared with loss-making transactions. This suggests that many holders are under financial pressure as XRP trades near the $1 level.

The indicator first dropped below 1 in April 2026, when XRP crypto was trading between $1.30 and $1.40. It later declined to 0.38 in early June before reaching its current level as XRP moved closer to $1.

However, a capitulation reading does not guarantee an immediate bottom. In 2022, the ratio later fell below 0.20 while XRP crypto declined toward $0.31 and stayed under pressure for months.

XRP Price Wave Structure Places $5.85 in Focus

Additionally, Dark Defender believed XRP price may have completed its wave-four correction near the current support region. His weekly chart places the potential completion zone close to the 100% Fibonacci level at approximately $0.9327.

The Relative Strength Index also sits near a level associated with earlier XRP bottoms. Weekly RSI has fallen close to 29, placing momentum inside oversold territory.

Under the bullish wave count, XRP price could begin a fifth-wave advance after establishing a durable base. The first major target appears near $5.8563, while the next extension sits around $8.7822.

A more aggressive projection reaches approximately $18.23. That level depends on a full long-term expansion and remains far from the current market structure.

For the wave outlook to gain credibility, XRP crypto must hold above $0.93 and begin reclaiming lost resistance. A continued decline below the support zone would weaken the proposed wave-four completion.

Rising Trend Line Keeps the Recovery Case Open

Notably, Mikybull Crypto also sees the current move as a possible capitulation event near long-term support. His monthly chart shows XRP testing a rising trend line extending from the 2020 market low.

The same setup places XRP near a major Fibonacci retracement while price remains below the Ichimoku cloud. That combination leaves room for another volatile support test before a sustained rebound develops.

Mikybull’s broader projection targets the $5–$8 range if XRP price holds the rising trend line. Those levels closely match the $5.85 and $8.78 targets shown in the separate Elliott Wave chart.

The immediate price map is less ambitious. XRP crypto must first preserve the $0.93–$1 zone, recover $1.40 and later break above $1.80–$1.90.

A successful move through those barriers would return attention to the previous high near $3.60. Only after clearing that level would the $5–$8 region become a stronger technical objective. A breakdown below $0.93 would delay that scenario and increase the risk of a deeper decline toward $0.80 before buyers attempt another recovery.

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