Winter Enhances The Thermal Imaging Systems On Ukraine’s Bomber Drones

Russia intended this winter to be decisive, with its troop surge breaking its stalemate with Ukraine. Instead, Ukraine’s night-flying bomber drones, nicknamed “Baba Yagas” by Russian soldiers, have played a key role in holding back the Russian offensive. These multi-rotor drones have been successful in seeking out Russian troop formations and dropping mines, mortars, and other munitions on them. Russian sources have acknowledged this effectiveness, with a recent post by a military blogger noting how effective these drones are in the colder winter conditions. In particular, the thermal imaging systems that enable night operations become more effective in cold weather, enhancing target detection and directly contributing to the increased impact of the Baba Yaga drones on the battlefield.

Thermal Imaging Systems And Frigid Temperatures

Thermal imaging systems detect the infrared radiation emitted by all objects with a temperature above absolute zero, producing images based on heat differentials rather than visible light. These systems have been integrated into a range of Ukrainian drones, particularly the Baba Yaga platforms, which use thermal imaging to detect targets at night, when contrast is naturally highest. During winter, this advantage increases further, as the relatively constant heat emitted by the human body, electronics, and vehicles stands out more sharply against colder ambient temperatures.

This effect has been acknowledged by Russian sources. The military blogger “Battle Unit” wrote on Telegram that cold winter conditions have significantly increased the effectiveness of thermal imagers, stating that “the battlefield is controlled not by the soldier’s eyes, but by the matrix of a thermal imager mounted on a UAV.” Rather than needing to identify soldiers as distinct human shapes, these systems detect temperature anomalies that contrast with their surroundings, often indicating human presence. In such conditions, even footsteps in the snow carry a different thermal signature than the surrounding area, which the drones can follow to find their target.

The primary benefit of thermal imaging is that it can pick up targets that would not have been detected in the visible spectrum. In particular, stationary targets are often difficult to detect with standard cameras, especially when employing effective camouflage measures. Meanwhile, in the infrared spectrum, stationary positions are easier to identify. Soldiers, electronic equipment, and heaters all generate heat, creating signatures that are difficult to conceal and build up over time. As a result, color camouflage, camouflage nets, and even well-executed field engineering offer little protection if a position remains thermally visible.

In response, Russian forces are reportedly beginning to employ thermal camouflage. Because eliminating a heat signature entirely is impossible, these measures attempt to break up and blend the thermal outline into the surrounding environment. However, their effectiveness is limited, as they still produce a detectable, though weaker, signature. Since thermal camouflage is typically used at fixed positions, those locations are often identified over time. Indeed, Ukrainian drones will often monitor a thermal anomaly over time, analyzing daily activity patterns before an attack is carried out.

Ukraine’s Access To Thermal Imaging Systems

For decades, modern militaries have relied on large and heavy thermal weapon sights that were effective but expensive and power-intensive. Advances in uncooled sensors, semiconductor manufacturing, and digital image processing have since transformed thermal imaging into a compact, energy-efficient, and relatively affordable technology. As a result, thermal cameras are now small enough to be mounted on drones, allowing them to become a key component of Ukrainian Baba Yaga operations.

While a number of foreign aid packages have included infrared camera systems, it appears that the systems used on these drones are primarily small commercial models. Wild Hornets released cost figures for their drones based on the type of imaging system used. The base cost for a Sting Interceptor drone equipped with an analog daytime camera is approximately $1,400 USD. When the drone is upgraded with a digital thermal imaging camera, the price increases to approximately $2,400 USD. This cost differential is comparable to commercially available thermal imaging systems. However, it does increase the cost of the drone significantly.

Despite significant cost reductions, thermal imaging systems remain too expensive to integrate into every drone, particularly one-way attack drones that are only used once. Because Ukraine fields a large and diverse drone fleet, it must conserve resources, as more expensive components would limit the total number of drones it can deploy. In addition, ongoing supply chain challenges affect the procurement of electronic components, including imaging systems. As a result, thermal cameras are primarily reserved for reusable bomber drones. In some cases, Ukraine has shown even greater restraint. In one video released online, a single high-flying Mavic drone is equipped with a thermal camera. After it detects a target, multiple lower-cost bomber drones move in at a lower altitude, where they are more vulnerable, to drop bombs.

Operational Implications For Russian Forces

Russia’s current strategy places its forces in a precarious position given this vulnerability. If frontline soldiers attempt to advance into the Ukrainian “kill zones,” they face a high likelihood of casualties. If they instead remain stationary in fixed positions farther back, those positions become increasingly easy to detect over time. This remains true even when standard and thermal camouflage are employed, due to persistent observation by Ukrainian drones equipped with thermal imaging systems. As a result, Russian forces are compelled either to relocate these positions beyond the effective range of Ukrainian drones or to place them under the protection of counter-drone systems. Both options complicate and slow the execution of offensive operations.

Russia could, in theory, exploit the same winter-driven improvements in thermal imaging effectiveness. However, according to multiple military bloggers, Russia lacks a heavy reusable bomber drone capability comparable to Ukraine’s Baba Yaga drones. While Russian forces do employ FPV and fiber-optic drones similar to those used by Ukraine, these platforms are largely disposable. As such, they are less likely to be equipped with more expensive thermal optics, particularly given that Russia faces the same resource constraints and supply chain challenges that Ukraine faces.

Ukraine has generally proven resourceful in exploiting battlefield advantages as they emerge. In this case, the combination of cold weather, thermal imaging, and reusable bomber drones provided a tactical edge that Ukraine leveraged to blunt Russia’s major winter offensive. Although these winter conditions are temporary, they arrived at a critical moment, allowing Ukraine to capitalize on this advantage at a key time.