Expert Explains Why The Market Cap Theory Doesn’t Apply To XRP

Market cap arguments always dominate debates around XRP’s long-term price potential, especially when double-digit and triple-digit targets are mentioned. Critics point to the altcoin’s large circulating supply and compare its implied valuation to banks and major corporations, using that comparison as a reason to dismiss higher price scenarios. 

However, a few analysts also contend that this framework misunderstands what the token is designed to do. According to one such expert, the problem is not the math itself, but the model being used to interpret it.

Why Bank Market Cap Comparisons Miss The Point

Crypto analyst Crypto Luke recently pushed back against the idea that XRP should be valued using the same logic applied to banks and financial institutions. The idea is that banks process enormous volumes of money every day, often in the trillions, but they do not hold that money on their balance sheets. The market capitalizations of banks are based on earnings, risk exposure, regulatory burdens, and operational efficiency, not the total value that flows through their systems.

Comparing XRP to financial institutions such as BNY Mellon mixes two very different concepts. Banks act as intermediaries that move other people’s money and earn fees along the way. The altcoin, on the other hand, is not a company but a liquidity bridge. It is designed to be the asset that actually settles value. Therefore, using equity-style market cap comparisons to judge a settlement asset like XRP leads to conclusions that are incomplete.

What This Means For XRP Price Debates

As noted by the expert, the design question isn’t how much volume moves; it’s how much capital must exist to support that movement without pre-funding.

It is important to note that the claim that market cap theory doesn’t apply to XRP is not a denial of basic math. Price multiplied by supply will always equal market capitalization. However, what Crypto Luke and others are challenging is the assumption that its market cap must be interpreted the same way as that of a bank or a traditional company. 

Related Reading: XRP Price At $10 Too Low? Pundit Says That’s For Retail, Reveals Institutional Targets

Another analyst, Pantoja, dismissed the idea that market cap is a hindrance for the altcoin to reach $1,000. The analyst noted that long-term XRP valuation will hinge on the real-world adoption of its underlying technology. Speaking of adoption, the adoption is talking about the token and the XRP Ledger being used by banks for cross-border settlements.

At the time of writing, XRP has a circulating supply of 60.7 billion XRP tokens. If the cryptocurrency were to reach a double-digit price, such as $10, based on the current supply, the implied market capitalization would be about $607 billion. That sounds extreme at first glance, but it is not automatically impossible. For context, Bitcoin’s market cap is about $1.79 trillion, so this is possible for a cryptocurrency.

This perspective weakens blanket statements that the token cannot reach certain price levels simply because the implied valuation looks large when placed next to corporate balance sheets. At the same time, it does not automatically validate extreme price targets. One crypto analyst, Mason Versluis, noted $10 is a much more realistic price target than $10,000 predictions.