Quantum breakthroughs pose a risk to Bitcoin’s ECC cryptography

Glassnode’s chief analyst, James Check, has rejected fears of quantum computing as the main reason for Bitcoin’s price slump, calling them misguided. Some Bitcoiners across the crypto landscape have alluded to this and remain skeptical that quantum computing is to blame for BTC’s price remaining low despite bullish forecasts last year that targeted as high as $250,000 by year’s end. 

Contrary to Bitcoiners’ opinions, traditional finance executives, including Jefferies strategist Christopher Wood, have expressed serious concerns about the impact of quantum computing, particularly on the security of the Bitcoin network.  Wood removed BTC from his portfolio recently, citing quantum fears, which in turn triggered debates across the industry, reflecting that quantum fear is entering institutional risk frameworks. 

Quantum breakthroughs pose a risk to Bitcoin’s ECC cryptography

According to a Cryptopolitan report, Quantum computing uses quantum bits (qubits) to process data in a fundamentally different way from traditional computers. At the moment, QC technology is still in its infancy, although some institutions have claimed several breakthroughs. Google claimed that it had developed a computer algorithm with the potential for practical applications in quantum computing, generating unique data for use with AI. 

IBM has also achieved a significant milestone by entangling 120 qubits into a stable state. This was verified with a fidelity of 0.56, and it used the Greenberger-Horne-Zeilinger (GHZ) states, which reduce noise in superconducting circuits and bring QC close to breaking elliptic curve cryptography (ECC) used in Bitcoin. 

This chain of events has sparked debates over whether quantum computing poses a threat to the cryptographic methods used to secure blockchains and whether it is the reason BTC’s price has remained down despite bullish forecasts.

Jefferies strategist Christopher Wood removed BTC from his ‘Greed & Fear’ portfolio last week. He cited that new developments in quantum computing could affect the long-term security of crypto blockchains and drive down prices.  

Other Bitcoiners, including Castle Island Ventures partner Nic Carter, said the primary catalyst for BTC’s price action is quantum computing risk and is the only story that matters this year, according to him. 

Jamie Coutts, chief crypto researcher at RealVision, noted that quantum risks do not correlate with price movements. Still, markets that focus on QC threats could influence Bitcoin’s future performance, especially as prices change and the industry’s preparedness for potential risks evolves. He supported Wood’s decision, noting that it signals that quantum risks are already in institutional risk frameworks, even if broader views still differ. 

Boyapati remains skeptical of the impact of QC on BTC price

Vijay Boyapati, a Bitcoin author, noted on a post that he is highly skeptical that the price of BTC can be explained by quantum computing, despite some investors picking up the narrative. Boyapati agrees that QC has a legitimate concern about BTC security. Still, for him, the real reason is the unlocking of additional supply once a magic number is hit for many whales. Boyapati further called for discussion on solutions to quantum risks.

James Check, Glassnode’s lead analyst, argued that while QC may be keeping some capital away from BTC due to the risks it poses, the current weakness in the token’s performance is largely due to heavy selling pressure from long-term holders. He noted the October bearish momentum that drew away approximately $19 billion from the crypto market killed every prior bull thrice over, and then once more. 

At the time of publication, BTC was trading at $89,800, unchanged over the past 24 hours and up approximately 6% over the past week. BTC has struggled to regain $100K since the beginning of the year, trading sideways between $87K and $97K. 

Want your project in front of crypto’s top minds? Feature it in our next industry report, where data meets impact.