Ethereum Foundation estimates 2029 for quantum upgrades to $260bn network. ‘The work must begin’

Quantum computers may not be ubiquitous next year, but the Ethereum Foundation is already making inroads to protect the $260 billion blockchain network.

On Tuesday, the non-profit organisation stewarding Ethereum published a new roadmap outlining how various developer teams were preparing for the advancement of ultra-powerful computers.

In it, the foundation’s quantum team forecasts that the network should have a host of initial upgrades completed by 2029.

That includes several key new hard forks to protect Ethereum from the potentially destructive effects of quantum compute.

“Quantum computing will eventually break the public-key cryptography that secures ownership, authentication, and consensus across all digital systems,” the foundation said, adding that they don’t expect this to occur imminently.

Still, it will take years to bootstrap Ethereum to accommodate quantum, with developer networks already in the works to test some quantum functionality as of March.

“The work must begin well before the threat arrives.”

The quantum threat

Quantum computing poses a legitimate threat to the cryptography that underpins blockchain networks, such as Bitcoin and Ethereum.

While traditional computers would need billions of years to crack these algorithms through brute force, a hypothetical quantum computer could derive a private key and spend a wallet’s funds in a matter of hours, suggest some researchers.

Quantum computing has been top of mind for core developers and investors of both Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Pierre-Luc Dallaire-Demers, a quantum computing researcher, told DL News in October that he expects quantum computers to crack Bitcoin’s cryptography within four to five years.

BlackRock explicitly flagged quantum computing as a risk factor in its amended prospectus for its flagship iShares Bitcoin Trust, filed in May.

Bitcoin developers are already working on a proposal, dubbed BIP360, that aims to address quantum risks.

“Our whole motto is: prepared, not scared,” one of the proposal’s authors, Hunter Beast, previously told DL News.

Likewise, the Ethereum Foundation has formed a dedicated quantum team in January to confront these risks — the very team behind the newly launched website outlining the technical roadmap.

Necessary changes

Researchers inside the Ethereum Foundation’s quantum team don’t expect “cryptographically relevant” quantum computing to arrive for another eight to 12 years.

That’s in line with what researchers investigating Bitcoin’s quantum computing threat have also found.

To prepare the network for this change, the Ethereum group has proposed four key hard forks

First, the “I” fork would provide network validators with a quantum-safe public key that they can have ready in case a quantum computer is suddenly developed. Then, the “J” fork would make it cheaper in gas fees to verify a quantum-safe signature.

These two upgrades are already being considered for inclusion in the upcoming Hegota fork expected for later this year.

The “L” fork compresses the network’s ability to express the blockchain’s state into zero-knowledge proofs. And finally, the “M” fork would also protect layer-2 networks against future quantum threats.

As for full execution-layer migration, that wouldn’t happen for a few years after these forks are completed by 2029.

“Based on our team’s current assessment, layer 1 protocol upgrades could be completed by 2029, with full execution-layer migration taking additional years beyond that,” researchers write.

Liam Kelly is DL News’ Berlin-based DeFi correspondent. Have a tip? Get in touch at liam@dlnews.com.