Grayscale has declared Bitcoin’s (BTC) bear-market floor, arguing the asset bottomed in the $65,000 to $70,000 range. The call runs counter to a wider consensus that places the low later in 2026.
Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale, said recent buyers have returned to breakeven after Bitcoin climbed more than 20% from its February 5 low near $63,000.
Grayscale’s On-Chain Case for a Bitcoin Bottom
Grayscale’s thesis rests on a metric called realized price, which averages a coin’s cost basis based on its most recent on-chain movement. It serves as a proxy for the market’s aggregate breakeven level.
For coins that changed hands over the past 1 to 3 months, Grayscale estimates the realized price at around $74,000. That level sits just below the current price level, leaving the newest cohort of buyers back at break-even.
Follow us on X to get the latest news as it happens
Bitcoin Realized Price. Source: GrayscaleBitcoin remains well beneath its October peak, but Grayscale contends the February rebound already carved out a durable floor. Further upside would push more recent buyers into positive territory. The firm views the rebound toward its cost-basis estimate as consistent with capitulation having already run its course.
Why Some Analysts Still See a Deeper Bitcoin Low
Not every researcher agrees that the worst has passed. Benjamin Cowen, CEO of Into The Cryptoverse and a former NASA researcher, told BeInCrypto his base case points to October 2026 for the cycle trough. An earlier bottom, he added, would require capitulation beyond historical mid-term norms.
Subscribe to our YouTube channel to watch leaders and journalists provide expert insights
Joao Wedson, CEO of on-chain analytics firm Alphractal, lands in the same camp, expecting a low in late September or early October 2026.
CryptoQuant has identified a broader window from June to December 2026, with September through November as the most probable period. That range gives the bearish case more room than Grayscale’s near-term thesis allows.
The split leaves traders weighing two outcomes. Either the February capitulation marked the cycle low and recent buyers are now in the early stages of a new bull trend, or Bitcoin has another leg down before a durable recovery begins later in 2026.
The post Grayscale Research Calls Bitcoin Bottom, Sees Early Bull Market Signals appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Source: https://beincrypto.com/grayscale-bitcoin-bottom-65k-70k/
