Kion (KGX) Stock Is Down 38% This Year — Morgan Stanley Just Said That’s a Buying Opportunity

TLDR

• Morgan Stanley upgraded Kion Group to “Overweight” and raised its price target to €62 from €48
• KGX stock jumped over 3% on Tuesday, trading as high as €46.43 — its highest level since mid-May
• The stock is down 38% year-to-date, trading at around €43.84, but Morgan Stanley sees 41% upside from current levels
• The broker forecasts EPS of €3.74 in 2026, rising to €5.47 in 2028, implying ~19% CAGR
• Kion’s Industrial Automation Solutions division and early physical AI partnerships were flagged as key growth drivers

Kion Group (KGX) stock climbed more than 3% on Tuesday after Morgan Stanley upgraded the Frankfurt-listed warehouse automation and forklift maker to “Overweight” from “Equal-weight.”

Kion Group AG, KNNGF

Analyst Max Yates lifted his price target to €62 from €48, implying 41% upside from Monday’s closing price. The stock jumped at the open to €46.43 — its highest print since mid-May — before settling around €45.39, still up 3.5% on the day.

The move made KGX one of the top performers in the MDax mid-cap index on Tuesday.

Despite the session’s gains, Kion remains down roughly 38% year-to-date, trading around €43.84. That decline, Yates argued, has pushed the stock to a level that prices in a more negative earnings outlook than the data supports.

The stock trades at 11.6 times 2026 estimated earnings and carries a free cash flow yield of 9%. Morgan Stanley’s bull case puts upside at 105%, with the bear case showing only 20% downside — an asymmetry the bank called attractive.

Kion carries a market cap of €4.33 billion and an enterprise value of €7.13 billion, with net debt forecast at €2.42 billion by end of 2026.

Morgan Stanley’s 2026 operational EBIT estimate of €868 million sits within Kion’s own guidance range of €850 million to €1.04 billion and is just 3% below consensus. The broker sees the group EBIT margin reaching around 9% by 2028, up from a forecast 7.6% in 2026.

EPS is forecast at €3.74 in 2026, rising to €5.47 in 2028 — a compound annual growth rate of roughly 19% through 2029.

Industrial Automation as the Growth Engine

A key part of the upgrade thesis centres on Kion’s Industrial Automation Solutions (IAS) division, which accounts for 31% of group sales. Morgan Stanley expects IAS to drive more than half of Kion’s revenue growth in 2027 and 2028, as capital expenditure from online retailers begins to recover.

The broker also pointed to Kion’s positioning in physical AI as a longer-term option. The company has partnerships with NVIDIA, NavVis, GreyOrange and Siemens, and is running a pilot autonomous forklift project at a GXO-operated warehouse in France.

Yates was measured in how he framed this, describing the AI exposure as “valuable additional options” rather than a near-term earnings driver. It is, he wrote, still too early to see any impact on revenue or margins.

Macro Tailwinds and Cost Discipline

On the macro side, Morgan Stanley pointed to five consecutive months of the euro area manufacturing PMI new orders index holding above 50 as a sign that European cyclical conditions may be past their worst.

Chinese competition continues to weigh on Kion’s pricing power, and the analysts acknowledged this as a structural headwind. However, a €150 million cost efficiency programme announced in February 2025 is expected to more than offset the volume pressure.

A recent pre-close call with management was described as “reassuring,” with Kion indicating the forklift market was tracking in line with its own expectations and that a major guidance cut was unlikely.

The stock cleared its 90-day moving average at around €44.50 on Tuesday, having already broken above its 21-day and 50-day moving averages in recent sessions. The highest price target among analysts tracked by Bloomberg belongs to JPMorgan, who have KGX at €76.

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