XRP Price Recovery Could Start — History Points At 33% Surge

The XRP price has corrected sharply in January. Since January 14, XRP has fallen roughly 16%. Even after a small rebound, the coin remains down nearly 2% over the past 24 hours, keeping the market cautious.

However, multiple signals now suggest selling pressure is fading rather than accelerating. A historically reliable momentum setup is reappearing, coin activity has collapsed to a six-month low, and short-term holders are already deeply underwater. Together, these conditions often precede sharp counter-trend moves.

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A Familiar Bullish Divergence That Previously Triggered a 33% Rally

The first signal comes from momentum.

On the daily price chart, XRP is flashing a bullish divergence. Between November 4 and December 31, the price made a lower low, while the RSI formed a higher low. RSI measures momentum by comparing recent gains and losses. When RSI improves while price weakens, it often signals that selling pressure is losing strength.

The last time this exact setup appeared, XRP rallied aggressively, about 33% in under a week.

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The same structure is now forming again between November 4 and January 19. Price has pushed lower, but RSI has refused to confirm the decline and has moved up instead. This does not guarantee another 33% XRP rally, but it shows momentum is again diverging from price in a way that previously marked a trend reversal.

Momentum alone is not enough. Selling behavior must also confirm exhaustion.

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Possible Panic Selling Collapses as Coin Activity Falls From 83 Million to Near Zero

That confirmation is coming from on-chain behavior.

One bearish signal tied to panic selling has dropped to a six-month low. Coin activity across age bands, measured by the Spent Coins Age band metric, collapsed from roughly 83 million XRP on January 15 to near zero (0.06) by January 21. This shows that very few coins, across all cohorts, are being actively moved or possibly sold despite the price decline.

At the same time, short-term holder behavior reinforces this exhaustion.

Short-term holder NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss), which measures whether recent buyers sit in profit or loss, has deteriorated sharply. Since January 5, this metric fell from around −0.03 to −0.235, a drop of over 680% deeper into loss territory. In simple terms, short-term holders are already heavily underwater.

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When holders are this deep in loss and coin movement dries up, the incentive to sell further drops sharply. Selling pressure weakens not because buyers are strong, but because sellers are exhausted.

So with nothing much to stop a rebound, the focus shifts to where the expected bounce could stop.

Cost Basis Clusters Define XRP Price Breakout and Breakdown Levels

Cost basis data shows where large groups of XRP were previously bought. These zones often act as resistance because holders near breakeven tend to sell.

The first key level is $2.00, a major psychological price and a cost basis zone holding roughly 1.55 billion XRP. Reclaiming this level is the first step toward stabilization.

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Above that, the strongest near-term resistance sits between $2.14 and $2.16. This range contains approximately 1.92 billion XRP, making it the heaviest supply cluster above the current price.

A clean move above $2.17 would clear this supply and signal that sellers are being absorbed. If that happens, upside levels near $2.41, $2.49, and even $2.89 come into focus, per the XRP price chart.

On the downside, failure to hold the current structure keeps the risk alive.

A drop below $1.84 weakens the rebound case, while $1.77 remains the critical floor.