Trump admin is about to make Iran's 'escalation trap' much more dangerous: expert

A political scientist said on Saturday that the Trump administration's "stunning" gaps in its Iran strategy just made Iran's "escalation trap" much more dangerous.

Robert Pape, a political scientist at the University of Chicago, argued during a recent interview on MS NOW's "Alex Witt Reports" that if the Trump administration decides to deploy ground troops in Iran, then the regime will start killing civilians in other countries like France and Germany with their long-range missiles. Pape said Iran has been telegraphing this move with its posture, and it isn't clear whether the Trump administration has picked up on this signal yet. Pape described these steps in a recent Substack essay as Iran's "escalation trap."

"What you're seeing is Iran is shifting," Pape said on Saturday. "The first bombs killed leaders, but hardened the regime. Then Iran has shifted to horizontal escalation, taking the Strait of Hormuz, as we're now about to launch operations to take it back, they're telling us they're going to start killing civilians."

Pape's comments come at a time when the Trump administration is weighing "several options" for dealing with the fallout of the Iran war, which includes sending ground troops to the country, NBC News reported. He argued that it is "really stunning" that the Trump administration appeared unprepared for Iran's current escalation, which suggests further escalations may be more deadly.

"We will likely lose many more [people] than the 13 military personnel that we've lost so far," Pape said about a hypothetical decision by the Trump administration to deploy ground troops. "But that's focusing on our side. From Iran's perspective, they will fight those tactical battles, but they're showing, and they're telling. Watch out for those malls. Watch out for Western tourists and the hotels."

Pape added that Iran's recent strike on a joint U.S.-U.K. base in Diego Garcia shows that the regime is capable of escalating the conflict.

"There are many more like that that can hit Rome, can hit Paris, and can hit Berlin," Pape said. "So, they are explaining very clearly with their behavior, not just their words, that if we do ground force operations in stage three, they've got another plan for stage three, and that is indiscriminate casualties on civilians."