Bitcoin Price Prediction as ETF Outflows Rise and Oil Hits $115 Ahead of FOMC

Key Insights

• Bitcoin price pulled back after finding substantial rejection near $80,000.
• Crude oil price jumped, with Brent hitting the resistance at $117.
• The Federal Reserve will deliver its interest rate decision on Wednesday.

The recent Bitcoin price rally has stalled this week amid a risk-off sentiment ahead of the Federal Reserve interest rate decision and amid a jump in crude oil prices. BTC token was trading at $76,880, a few points below this month’s high of $79,360.

Bitcoin Price Stalls as BTC ETF Outflows Rise

There are signs that American investors are starting to embrace a risk-off sentiment this week. Data shows that spot Bitcoin ETFs have started to have outflows.

The funds lost $89 million in assets on Tuesday, with BlackRock’s IBIT losing $112 million and Fidelity’s FBTC losing $4.9 million. These outflows were offset by 21Shares’ ARKB, which added $41 million in assets. Other funds did not have any inflows and outflows in the same period.

If this week ends with an outflow, it will be the first time it has happened since March 27 this year. Still, on the positive side, the funds have added over $2 billion this month, their best performance since October last year.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have now recorded net inflows of $58.2 billion since their inception, with the recently launched Morgan Stanley Bitcoin ETF (MSBT) already surpassing $188 million in assets. They now hold $100 billion in assets, with IBIT having $61 billion.

Crude Oil Prices are Soaring Ahead of Federal Reserve Decision

The ongoing Bitcoin ETF outflows are occurring amid rising market risks. For example, data shows that crude oil prices have continued to rise, with Brent at $116 and West Texas Intermediate at $103. Other global oil benchmarks, including the urals, have soared to $108.

Oil prices surged after the Wall Street Journal reported that President Donald Trump was considering prolonging the Iranian blockade. This rally may continue in the coming days if this reporting is confirmed.

Other items are also soaring, with fertilizer in a strong uptrend, which is driving higher food prices. Wheat and corn soared to the highest point in three months, raising inflation concerns.

The most recent data showed that US consumer inflation continued rising, reaching a high of 3.3% in March. Analysts expect the inflation report to jump to 4.3% later this year.

These numbers mean that the Federal Reserve will find it difficult to cut interest rates this year, with some officials advocating for a hike.

A Federal Reserve interest rate hike would push government bond yields higher and other risky assets like Bitcoin and altcoins lower. These concerns explain why the Crypto Fear and Greed Index has slumped from the greed level of 63 to 33 today. It also explains why the volume of Bitcoin traded in exchanges and the futures open interest have pulled back.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Technical Analysis

The daily chart shows that the BTC price has been crawling upwards in the past few months. This rebound found substantial resistance at $79,000, where it failed to cross. The price coincided with the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level. It was also along the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

The challenge, however, is that it has found resistance at the upper side of the ascending channel. That is a sign that bulls are afraid of placing bids above it. It could be a sign that the recent rebound was part of a bull trap, which is a temporary rebound followed by a retreat.

Therefore, the coin will likely remain under pressure as long as it is below the key resistance level at $79,800. This may push it to the next key support level at $60,000, its lowest level this year.

However, a rebound above the key resistance level at $90,000 will point to more gains, potentially to $90,000 or even $100k.

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