What’s next after House committee OKs VP Sara impeachment complaints?

The House justice committee, in a unanimous vote, found probable cause to impeach Vice President Sara Duterte on Wednesday, April 29.

What does that mean and what happens next?

Probable cause, as Senior Deputy Minority Leader Leila de Lima explained, is a determination that the facts and circumstances surrounding an alleged impeachable offense exist and are supported by evidence.

The committee spent four hearings to establish probable cause by inviting key witnesses and resource persons who can substantiate allegations that Duterte betrayed public trust, committed graft and corruption, and culpably violated the Constitution, when she supposedly misused public funds, bribed government officials, failed to explain her wealth, and issued death threats against President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and his family.

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Two out of four impeachment complaints survived the committee-level proceedings — these two are the ones endorsed separately by De Lima and the tandem of Deputy Speaker Paolo Ortega and Manila 6th District Bienvenido Abante. The panel will now spend the next few days consolidating the two impeachment complaints into one.

“Consolidating the two complaints for the purpose of preparing the articles of impeachment will prevent duplication of the work of this committee, managing the risks of confusion, inconsistency, and dilution of charges when subjected to the constitutional threshold of a one-third vote by the House,” De Lima explained.

The committee report will set forth the articles of impeachment. When the House justice committee meets again on Monday, May 4, also the day Congress resumes plenary sessions after a two-month break, a formality vote is expected to be held approving the said committee report.

Committee chair Jinky Luistro previously told Newswatch that as soon as her panel approves the committee report, it will be transmitted to the plenary immediately.

Respondent Duterte and even all House members will be given a copy of the committee report and the attachments, so that lawmakers can be given the opportunity to study the consolidated complaint.

Luistro said this is consistent with the new Supreme Court ruling on impeachment. The High Court, in ruling Duterte’s first impeachment unconstitutional in July 2025, wrote: “A reasonable period of time determined on the basis of the complexity of the charges must be given to all the members of the House of Representatives for them to reach their independent decision of whether or not to endorse an impeachment complaint.”

“The determination of this period principally lies with the House of Representatives. However, the Court has the power to review whether this period is sufficient, but the petitioner should discharge the burden of overcoming regularity in the performance of their functions,” it added.

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How exactly plenary deliberations will go is unclear, but if we’re going by how the House handled the committee report dismissing the impeachment complaint against President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. in February, it is likely that Duterte’s allies will be given the opportunity to speak in the plenary and voice their opposition to the committee report that favors her impeachment.

Luistro said that a plenary vote may take place as early as May 11. Given that 53 lawmakers already voted in favor of motions declaring probable cause in the impeachment complaints at the committee level, theoretically, only 53 more votes are needed to impeach the Vice President.

The magic number is 106, which is equivalent to one-third of the House’s total number of members at 318. A one-third vote is the constitutional threshold to indict an impeachable official.

It is a number that won’t be difficult to hit, especially if those who made up the list of 215 House members who signed the impeachment complaint against Duterte in the 19th Congress stick to their guns. The alleged offenses cited in the petitions last year and this year are virtually the same, although the accusations have been expounded on this year, thanks to the production of documents and affidavits subpoenaed by the justice committee.

While National Unity Party (NUP), as a collective, expressed strong reservations about impeaching Duterte, the committee-level vote on Wednesday indicates that they are unlikely to present a united stand in favor of the Vice President. NUP members Lorenz Defensor, AJ Advincula, and Ping Remulla, for example, already voted in favor of the probable cause motions.

If the one-third vote is met, Duterte becomes the first impeachable official in Philippine history to be impeached twice. Across the world, she joins a very exclusive group that includes US president Donald Trump.

In this scenario, the articles of impeachment will be sent to the Senate, which will be tasked to put Duterte on trial. While the Constitution says the trial shall “forthwith” proceed, a new Supreme Court ruling says there is no definite time frame as to when the Senate should start the proceedings.

“The Supreme Court clarified that the term ‘forthwith’ in Article XI, Section 3(4) of the Constitution means within a reasonable time, which may be longer or shorter depending on the circumstances of each case. This affords the Senate the opportunity to make the necessary preparations before convening as an impeachment court,” a press briefer from the High Court said. 

Nonetheless, the trial will determine the political future of Duterte, although the numbers are currently on her side.

A two-thirds vote, or 16 out of 24 senators, convicts Duterte and disqualifies her from public office — and the 2028 presidential election that she said she would participate in.

If you run the numbers, she needs only nine senators to avoid conviction. Several are widely seen as reliable votes for the Vice President — Imee Marcos, Robin Padilla, Bong Go, Rodante Marcoleta, and Ronald dela Rosa. Even if Dela Rosa remains absent, that still works in her favor because it will reduce the pool of votes that can be assembled by the pro-conviction side. The Cayetano siblings and Villar siblings have also tended to be aligned with, or sympathetic to, the Dutertes.

The trial will not be confined to the Senate floor. It will also play out in the court of public opinion as additional evidence comes to light. Millions of Filipinos will effectively have a front-row view of proceedings involving a perceived 2028 frontrunner, and will weigh for themselves whether Duterte remains fit to lead despite the flaws that could be further exposed. – Rappler.com