Oppenheimer issues bold price target on SpaceX stock

SpaceX’s (SPCX) historic IPO kicked off with a valuation few companies ever touch.

Consequently, it also left investors wondering how much upside is left, or whether profit-taking is about to begin.

SpaceX's stock, priced at $135, raised $75 billion, opening a brand new chapter for Elon Musk’s space empire, according to Reuters.

By its first close, SpaceX had jumped to $160.95, stretching an already heated valuation debate.

For perspective, SpaceX now ranks as the largest U.S. stock-market IPO by amount raised.

According to Investopedia, that puts it comfortably ahead of Alibaba’s $21.8 billion 2014 listing, Visa’s $17.4 billion IPO in 2008, Enel’s $16.4 billion deal in 1999, and Meta/Facebook’s $16 billion debut in 2012. 

Nevertheless, the excitement was on the cards from the get-go, but investors stared at a stock that had already moved 20% above its IPO price.

Then Oppenheimer raised the bar.

According to TheFly, the veteran stock market research firm just issued Wall Street’s first major price target on SpaceX, arguing that the bigger story may still be underpriced.

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What Oppenheimer said about SpaceX stock

Oppenheimer’s Timothy Horan gave SpaceX one of its first major Wall Street endorsements after its historic IPO.

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Horan initiated his coverage with an Outperform rating and a $190 price target, implying about 18% upside from SpaceX’s latest reported close of $160.95 after the stock jumped and popped 19% in its Nasdaq debut. 

According to him, SpaceX is the “only fully vertically integrated AI company", spearheaded by its capital, data, large language models, hardware, manufacturing, and engineering talent.

Speaking of Horan, the Oppenheimer analyst who mainly covers technology, communications, and telecom is a 4.70-star analyst, with a 58.82% success rate according to Tipranks.

That broader thesis is why he feels it’s unfair to treat it as a traditional aerospace player. 

He feels SpaceX can control more of the stack than rivals.

It launches its own rockets, builds and operates Starlink satellites, owns the customer relationship, and could eventually use cheaper orbital access to support AI infrastructure.

Currently, Starlink is clearly its financial engine, but Oppenheimer’s target suggests investors should look beyond broadband alone.

According to Reuters, Starlink accounted for about 60% of SpaceX’s $18.67 billion in 2025 sales, implying $11.2 billion in Starlink revenue.

Put simply, Oppenheimer views SpaceX as a future mega-cap AI infrastructure platform.

Key numbers behind SpaceX’s IPO

• Reuters reports that SpaceX raised $75 billion in its IPO, giving it a massive capital cushion for Starship, Starlink, satellite expansion, and longer-term Mars ambitions.
• Shares were priced at $135, valuing SpaceX at roughly $1.75 trillion before trading began, Reuters reported.
  The stock is being valued more as a juggernaut in space infrastructure and a satellite network platform.
• SpaceX’s valuation reportedly climbed to about $2.1 trillion after shares jumped nearly 20% on their first trading day, according to The Guardian.
• The clearest risk is valuation: at $1.75 trillion and a reported 2025 revenue of $18.67 billion, SpaceX would trade near 94 times trailing sales.
• The IPO pushed Elon Musk’s net worth past $1 trillion, tying his fortune even more closely to SpaceX’s public-market performance, according to Business Insider.

Why the $190 price target matters after the historic IPO

Oppenheimer’s bold new price target for SpaceX stock matters a lot more given the kind of IPO it priced. 

Such lofty numbers almost immediately force investors to rethink pricing.

Related: Former Tesla board member issues candid message on SpaceX stock

Over the years, Tesla, its proof-of-concept cousin, has been notorious among bears for being overpriced for similar reasons. 

Tesla still trades at an extremely rich multiple, according to Yahoo Finance, with a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 384.

That question is perhaps even sharper in today’s market.

Investors are no longer giving every AI or growth stock a free pass. Stronger jobs data, stubborn inflation, higher yields, and delayed Fed-cut expectations have made valuation harder to ignore. 

That’s exactly why Oppenheimer’s call is a stand-out.

Instead of the usual IPO momentum-chasing argument, the firm argues that SpaceX deserves a broader valuation framework tied to Starlink, launch dominance, and future AI infrastructure.

What has to happen next for SpaceX investors 

For SpaceX investors, the next test is if it can effectively defend its newfound place near the top of the market’s power structure. 

SpaceX’s IPO blast-off put it ahead of Tesla and Meta and immediately complicated the old “Magnificent Seven” label.

As Shay Boloor, chief market strategist at Futurum Equities, told Reuters, "It becomes very hard to keep using Mag 7 as the clean shorthand for market leadership." 

Naturally, the next major move has to come from execution.

SpaceX needs Starlink growth, lower launch costs, and a credible path to AI infrastructure to prove the IPO valuation was not just a market moment.

Moreover, veteran investors are already pouring in, as, according to Investor’s Business Daily, Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest scooped up nearly 3.3 million SpaceX shares on IPO day.

Related: Bank of America warns stock market may face a 1994-style shock