The post Ukraine Blocks Polymarket as War-Related Betting Crosses a Red Line appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Regulations Prediction markets thrive on uncertaintyThe post Ukraine Blocks Polymarket as War-Related Betting Crosses a Red Line appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Regulations Prediction markets thrive on uncertainty

Ukraine Blocks Polymarket as War-Related Betting Crosses a Red Line

Regulations

Prediction markets thrive on uncertainty. But in countries at war, uncertainty itself can become a national security issue.

That tension is now playing out in Ukraine, where authorities have moved to curb access to online platforms that allow users to speculate on real-world outcomes tied to the conflict. Among them is Polymarket, a crypto-based marketplace where users trade contracts on political, economic, and geopolitical events.

Key Takeaways
  • Ukraine moved to restrict Polymarket by classifying it as an unlicensed gambling platform, triggering ISP-level blocks
  • War-related prediction markets and the monetization of battlefield outcomes pushed the platform into a sensitive national-security zone
  • Enforcement remains uneven, highlighting how digital platforms can sit between legal bans and technical reality during wartime 

Why Prediction Markets Became a Problem

Polymarket does not operate like a traditional bookmaker. Instead, users trade “yes” or “no” outcome contracts with each other, creating prices that function as crowd-sourced probabilities.

During 2025, that mechanism began intersecting uncomfortably with the Russian-Ukrainian war. Markets appeared that attempted to price the likelihood and timing of territorial changes in eastern Ukraine. While traders saw these contracts as information signals, Ukrainian media and officials viewed them differently: as monetized speculation on military outcomes.

The scale amplified the concern. Hundreds of Ukraine-related markets accumulated volumes well into the hundreds of millions of dollars, drawing attention far beyond the crypto community.

How the State Responded

Rather than targeting content directly, Ukrainian authorities acted through licensing law.

The National Commission for State Regulation in the Field of Electronic Communications formally classified Polymarket as an unlicensed gambling service under national rules. As a result, the platform’s domain was added to Ukraine’s public register of restricted online resources, triggering mandatory access limitations by internet service providers.

The order itself was procedural, issued under an existing regulatory resolution. But its implications were broad: once listed, providers are legally required to block access regardless of the platform’s technical structure or global footprint.

Enforcement Is Still Patchy

In practice, the restriction has rolled out unevenly. Some Ukrainian users report complete inaccessibility, while others can still reach the site depending on their ISP.

Officials have not announced a firm deadline for full enforcement, suggesting the process may depend on provider-level implementation rather than a centralized shutdown. This has created a temporary gray zone where the block exists legally, but not uniformly in reality.

Data Use Added Fuel to the Fire

Separate from licensing issues, Ukrainian outlets raised alarms about the use of data from the DeepState OSINT project – a well-known open-source intelligence initiative tracking frontline developments.

Reports alleged that some Polymarket markets relied on DeepState data accessed through an API connection without explicit permission. While regulators have not publicly confirmed whether this factor directly influenced the ban, it intensified scrutiny around how wartime information was being repurposed for speculative trading.

A Global Platform, Uneven Rules

Ukraine is not alone in taking action. Romania has also ordered local providers to restrict access to Polymarket. At the same time, the platform operates legally in other jurisdictions.

In the United States, Polymarket re-entered the market under the supervision of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, following regulatory clearance related to event-based contracts.

Globally, the platform has grown rapidly. Its valuation was estimated near $9 billion in 2025, and founder Shane Coplan rose to billionaire status at a young age. The platform gained mainstream attention after accurately pricing a decisive Donald Trump election victory in 2024 ahead of official results.

What This Really Signals

Ukraine’s move is less about crypto and more about boundaries. Prediction markets blur the line between information, opinion, and profit. In peacetime, that tension is mostly academic. In wartime, it becomes political.

By classifying Polymarket as an unlicensed gambling service, Ukrainian authorities avoided debating free expression or forecasting ethics. Instead, they applied a clear legal tool to regain control over how war-related outcomes are monetized online.

The broader question remains unresolved: where does forecasting end, and where does exploitation begin?


The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Author

Alexander Zdravkov is a person who always looks for the logic behind things. He has more than 3 years of experience in the crypto space, where he skillfully identifies new trends in the world of digital currencies. Whether providing in-depth analysis or daily reports on all topics, his deep understanding and enthusiasm for what he does make him a valuable member of the team.

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Source: https://coindoo.com/ukraine-blocks-polymarket-as-war-related-betting-crosses-a-red-line/

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Summarize Any Stock’s Earnings Call in Seconds Using FMP API

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Turn lengthy earnings call transcripts into one-page insights using the Financial Modeling Prep APIPhoto by Bich Tran Earnings calls are packed with insights. They tell you how a company performed, what management expects in the future, and what analysts are worried about. The challenge is that these transcripts often stretch across dozens of pages, making it tough to separate the key takeaways from the noise. With the right tools, you don’t need to spend hours reading every line. By combining the Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) API with Groq’s lightning-fast LLMs, you can transform any earnings call into a concise summary in seconds. The FMP API provides reliable access to complete transcripts, while Groq handles the heavy lifting of distilling them into clear, actionable highlights. In this article, we’ll build a Python workflow that brings these two together. You’ll see how to fetch transcripts for any stock, prepare the text, and instantly generate a one-page summary. Whether you’re tracking Apple, NVIDIA, or your favorite growth stock, the process works the same — fast, accurate, and ready whenever you are. Fetching Earnings Transcripts with FMP API The first step is to pull the raw transcript data. FMP makes this simple with dedicated endpoints for earnings calls. If you want the latest transcripts across the market, you can use the stable endpoint /stable/earning-call-transcript-latest. For a specific stock, the v3 endpoint lets you request transcripts by symbol, quarter, and year using the pattern: https://financialmodelingprep.com/api/v3/earning_call_transcript/{symbol}?quarter={q}&year={y}&apikey=YOUR_API_KEY here’s how you can fetch NVIDIA’s transcript for a given quarter: import requestsAPI_KEY = "your_api_key"symbol = "NVDA"quarter = 2year = 2024url = f"https://financialmodelingprep.com/api/v3/earning_call_transcript/{symbol}?quarter={quarter}&year={year}&apikey={API_KEY}"response = requests.get(url)data = response.json()# Inspect the keysprint(data.keys())# Access transcript contentif "content" in data[0]: transcript_text = data[0]["content"] print(transcript_text[:500]) # preview first 500 characters The response typically includes details like the company symbol, quarter, year, and the full transcript text. If you aren’t sure which quarter to query, the “latest transcripts” endpoint is the quickest way to always stay up to date. Cleaning and Preparing Transcript Data Raw transcripts from the API often include long paragraphs, speaker tags, and formatting artifacts. Before sending them to an LLM, it helps to organize the text into a cleaner structure. Most transcripts follow a pattern: prepared remarks from executives first, followed by a Q&A session with analysts. Separating these sections gives better control when prompting the model. In Python, you can parse the transcript and strip out unnecessary characters. A simple way is to split by markers such as “Operator” or “Question-and-Answer.” Once separated, you can create two blocks — Prepared Remarks and Q&A — that will later be summarized independently. This ensures the model handles each section within context and avoids missing important details. Here’s a small example of how you might start preparing the data: import re# Example: using the transcript_text we fetched earliertext = transcript_text# Remove extra spaces and line breaksclean_text = re.sub(r'\s+', ' ', text).strip()# Split sections (this is a heuristic; real-world transcripts vary slightly)if "Question-and-Answer" in clean_text: prepared, qna = clean_text.split("Question-and-Answer", 1)else: prepared, qna = clean_text, ""print("Prepared Remarks Preview:\n", prepared[:500])print("\nQ&A Preview:\n", qna[:500]) With the transcript cleaned and divided, you’re ready to feed it into Groq’s LLM. Chunking may be necessary if the text is very long. A good approach is to break it into segments of a few thousand tokens, summarize each part, and then merge the summaries in a final pass. Summarizing with Groq LLM Now that the transcript is clean and split into Prepared Remarks and Q&A, we’ll use Groq to generate a crisp one-pager. The idea is simple: summarize each section separately (for focus and accuracy), then synthesize a final brief. Prompt design (concise and factual) Use a short, repeatable template that pushes for neutral, investor-ready language: You are an equity research analyst. Summarize the following earnings call sectionfor {symbol} ({quarter} {year}). Be factual and concise.Return:1) TL;DR (3–5 bullets)2) Results vs. guidance (what improved/worsened)3) Forward outlook (specific statements)4) Risks / watch-outs5) Q&A takeaways (if present)Text:<<<{section_text}>>> Python: calling Groq and getting a clean summary Groq provides an OpenAI-compatible API. Set your GROQ_API_KEY and pick a fast, high-quality model (e.g., a Llama-3.1 70B variant). We’ll write a helper to summarize any text block, then run it for both sections and merge. import osimport textwrapimport requestsGROQ_API_KEY = os.environ.get("GROQ_API_KEY") or "your_groq_api_key"GROQ_BASE_URL = "https://api.groq.com/openai/v1" # OpenAI-compatibleMODEL = "llama-3.1-70b" # choose your preferred Groq modeldef call_groq(prompt, temperature=0.2, max_tokens=1200): url = f"{GROQ_BASE_URL}/chat/completions" headers = { "Authorization": f"Bearer {GROQ_API_KEY}", "Content-Type": "application/json", } payload = { "model": MODEL, "messages": [ {"role": "system", "content": "You are a precise, neutral equity research analyst."}, {"role": "user", "content": prompt}, ], "temperature": temperature, "max_tokens": max_tokens, } r = requests.post(url, headers=headers, json=payload, timeout=60) r.raise_for_status() return r.json()["choices"][0]["message"]["content"].strip()def build_prompt(section_text, symbol, quarter, year): template = """ You are an equity research analyst. Summarize the following earnings call section for {symbol} ({quarter} {year}). Be factual and concise. 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If a section is extremely long, chunk at ~5–8k tokens, summarize each chunk with the same prompt, then ask the model to merge chunk summaries into one section summary before producing the final one-pager. If you also fetched headline numbers (EPS/revenue, guidance) earlier, prepend them to the prompt as brief context to help the model anchor on the right outcomes. Building the End-to-End Pipeline At this point, we have all the building blocks: the FMP API to fetch transcripts, a cleaning step to structure the data, and Groq LLM to generate concise summaries. The final step is to connect everything into a single workflow that can take any ticker and return a one-page earnings call summary. The flow looks like this: Input a stock ticker (for example, NVDA). Use FMP to fetch the latest transcript. Clean and split the text into Prepared Remarks and Q&A. Send each section to Groq for summarization. Merge the outputs into a neatly formatted earnings one-pager. Here’s how it comes together in Python: def summarize_earnings_call(symbol, quarter, year, api_key, groq_key): # Step 1: Fetch transcript from FMP url = f"https://financialmodelingprep.com/api/v3/earning_call_transcript/{symbol}?quarter={quarter}&year={year}&apikey={api_key}" resp = requests.get(url) resp.raise_for_status() data = resp.json() if not data or "content" not in data[0]: return f"No transcript found for {symbol} {quarter} {year}" text = data[0]["content"] # Step 2: Clean and split clean_text = re.sub(r'\s+', ' ', text).strip() if "Question-and-Answer" in clean_text: prepared, qna = clean_text.split("Question-and-Answer", 1) else: prepared, qna = clean_text, "" # Step 3: Summarize with Groq prepared_summary = summarize_section(prepared, symbol, quarter, year) qna_summary = summarize_section(qna, symbol, quarter, year) # Step 4: Merge into final one-pager return f"""# {symbol} Earnings One-Pager — {quarter} {year}## Prepared Remarks{prepared_summary}## Q&A Highlights{qna_summary}""".strip()# Example runprint(summarize_earnings_call("NVDA", 2, 2024, API_KEY, GROQ_API_KEY)) With this setup, generating a summary becomes as simple as calling one function with a ticker and date. 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