ICTSI shares fall on Middle East conflict

By Heather Caitlin P. Mañago, Researcher

SHARES OF RAZON-LED International Container Terminal Services, Inc. (ICTSI) fell last week as the escalating conflict in the Middle East raised investor concerns, overshadowing the port operator’s record earnings for 2025.

Data from the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) showed that ICTSI was the most actively traded stock last week, with 11.34 million shares worth P7.97 billion traded from March 9 to 13.

ICTSI closed at P685 per share, down 4.6% from the previous Friday’s close of P718. The stock underperformed the services sector’s 3.7% decline and the Philippine Stock Exchange index’s (PSEi) 4.1% contraction.

Year to date, however, the stock has risen by 20.8%, outperforming the services sector’s 14.3% growth and the PSEi’s 0.1% increase.

Analysts said the decline was mainly driven by concerns over operational disruptions at ICTSI’s Basra terminal in Iraq.

“The decline was mainly driven by investor concerns over geopolitical risks affecting ICTSI’s Basra Terminal in Iraq,” Wendy B. Estacio-Cruz, head of equity research at Unicapital Securities, Inc., said in an e-mail.

She noted that the conflict has resulted in “zero volume projections” for the facility, which is “estimated to reduce consolidated EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) by around 4-5% monthly while the disruption persists.”

Chinabank Research shared a similar view, stating that the decline “could be attributed to escalating conflict in the Middle East, which raises the risk of operational disruption — particularly at its Iraq terminal — given the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.”

The Strait of Hormuz has been closed since Feb. 28 after coordinated US and Israeli strikes on Iran. In response, Iran barred vessel passage and reportedly deployed naval mines in the waterway.

ICTSI’s Basra Gateway Terminal (BGT), located at the Port of Umm Qasr, is Iraq’s largest port and a key hub for international trade.

It is the country’s only terminal operating to international standards, equipped with advanced technology and Iraq’s largest quay cranes capable of handling 12,000-TEU (twenty-foot equivalent unit) vessels and specialized oil-and-gas cargo.

These geopolitical risks dampened the otherwise positive sentiment generated by ICTSI’s 2025 annual report released on March 4.

For full-year 2025, ICTSI posted a 23% increase in attributable net income to $1.05 billion from $849.80 million in 2024.

Gross revenue rose 17.88% to $3.23 billion from $2.74 billion a year earlier.

Capital expenditures, excluding capitalized borrowing costs, totaled $650.44 million, with funds directed toward ongoing expansions in Mexico, the Philippines, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Brazil.

For 2026, ICTSI plans to allocate approximately $740 million, mainly for the Phase 3B expansion at Contecon Manzanillo S.A. in Mexico; expansions at the Manila International Container Terminal, Mindanao Container Terminal, and South Luzon Container Terminal in the Philippines; upgrades at ICTSI Rio in Brazil; and various equipment acquisitions, upgrades, and maintenance initiatives.

“Despite these strong results, ICTSI’s share price still declined week-on-week as investors focused more on near-term risks associated with the Basra terminal disruption, which overshadowed the positive earnings performance,” Ms. Estacio-Cruz said.

Chinabank Research said that while the record financial performance initially lifted sentiment, “investor attention quickly shifted to concerns over how the ongoing Middle East conflict could weigh on this year’s profit outlook.”

Looking ahead, investors are expected to remain focused on developments in the Middle East.

Ms. Estacio-Cruz said market participants will likely monitor “the company’s ability to offset the Basra disruption through stronger yields, supported by tariff increases and favorable rate adjustments.”

Chinabank Research added that investors “should continue to monitor geopolitical developments, as these can significantly influence broader market sentiment.”

The brokerage pegged the stock’s support at P660 and resistance at P730.