XRP Stuck Below $1.38 as Bulls and Bears Clash Over Next Move

• Following an over 5% rally earlier this week, XRP has struggled to break above $1.38.
• TradingView’s moving average ratings signal a strong sell on the daily timeframe.
• The CLARITY Act Senate markup and FOMC meeting on April 28–29 are the key near-term catalysts.

XRP trades at $1.34 at press time, holding modest gains of 0.1% in the past day to extend its weekly gain to 1.5%. Following an over 5% rally earlier this week, the token has struggled to break above $1.38 on multiple attempts. 

XRP is down more than 60% from its cycle peak of $3.65, reached in mid-2025, and has posted losses every month since October. Analysts remain split on whether the token will climb to $1.60 or slide toward $1.15 this month.

TradingView’s aggregated indicator ratings show a strong sell signal on the daily timeframe, with moving averages aligned against the price. Oscillators read neutral. The weekly trend also leans bearish, though the monthly rating flips to a buy, reflecting conflicting signals across timeframes.

XRP’s Bearish Case

Sellers have controlled every rally this week. Rising volume alongside falling prices points to distribution. Traders are offloading into strength rather than building new positions.

The broader macro backdrop adds pressure. On April 7, President Trump announced a two-week US-Iran ceasefire, conditional on Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz. About $425 million in crypto short positions were liquidated after the announcement, driving XRP 5% higher to $1.38. 

The rally, however, collapsed within 48 hours. Israel struck Lebanon, Iran closed the Strait again, and XRP pulled back to $1.33. The Federal Reserve responded by raising its inflation forecast. Institutional money has since rotated out of risk assets.

In the past 24 hours, XRP products saw $661,160 in outflows, bringing the historical total net outflow to $25.845 million. Total XRP ETF assets under management have fallen from a January peak of $1.65 billion to roughly $1 billion, with 84% of remaining capital coming from retail investors.

With XRP price showing repeated rejections near $1.37–$1.38, that zone has become a ceiling. Its immediate support now sits at $1.32. Failure to hold this level would see XRP drop to $1.28, the level analysts say matters most.

The Bullish Case

Accumulation data tells a different story. CryptoQuant data from April 6 shows whale wallets adding over 11 million XRP per day on a 30-day average, the highest accumulation rate in 10 months. Exchange outflows have accelerated, reducing the supply available to sell.

Elsewhere, the U.S. Senate returns from recess on April 13. The Senate Banking Committee is targeting a markup of the CLARITY Act in the second half of April. If passed, the bill would formally classify XRP as a digital commodity under federal law. At the macro level, the upcoming FOMC meeting on April 28–29 is also expected to influence broader market sentiment.

On the chart, TradingView analysts identify a descending wedge structure converging with macro channel support, a setup that has historically triggered buying. Analysts say these outcomes could push XRP above $1.45 and toward $1.60–$1.80.

Related: XRP Still Bearish Despite Short-term Bounce, Analyst Warns