PAGASA: El Niño has 79% chance of emerging within months

MANILA, Philippines – The weather bureau warned the public that there is now a 79% chance of El Niño developing in the tropical Pacific Ocean within the period of June-July-August 2026, which could trigger droughts and dry spells in parts of the Philippines.

As a result, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) raised its warning status from El Niño Watch to El Niño Alert on Wednesday, April 22.

El Niño Watch, which had been raised last March 25, indicated a probability of at least 55% that the weather phenomenon would develop within six months.

El Niño Alert, meanwhile, is issued when El Niño has at least a 70% chance of emerging within two to three months.

“This development has significant implications for weather patterns across the country, including below-normal rainfall in several areas, which may affect critical sectors such as water resources, agriculture, energy supply, and overall public welfare,” PAGASA Administrator Nathaniel Servando said in a press conference on Wednesday.

Servando called on the national government, local government units, and the public to prepare for the looming possibility of El Niño.

“This is a critical stage where preparedness actions should already be intensified,” he said.

‘Super El Niño’ not ruled out

If El Niño develops, it may last until early 2027. This could pose more problems for the Philippines, which is already reeling from the impact of the Middle East crisis on all sectors.

Ana Liza Solis, chief of PAGASA’s Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section, said the El Niño episode might start off as weak before becoming moderate to strong by September-October-November 2026. But she added that they are not ruling out the possibility of a strong to very strong El Niño, or so-called “Super El Niño,” by the fourth quarter of 2026 or by January 2027.

“Hindi pa po nag-a-agree ang lahat ng [climate] models. So there is always a possibility, but then ‘yung uncertainty, mataas pa po,” Solis explained.

(Climate models have yet to reach a consensus. So there is always a possibility, but the uncertainty remains high.)

El Niño is the warm phase of El Niño Southern Oscillation or ENSO, which the World Meteorological Organization defines as “a recurring natural phenomenon characterized by fluctuating ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, coupled with changes in the atmosphere.” 

The two other ENSO phases are La Niña or the cool phase, and neutral.

For now, ENSO-neutral conditions persist in the tropical Pacific. This current neutral phase was preceded by a relatively weak La Niña episode from late 2025 to early 2026.

While some parts of the Philippines may see drier-than-usual conditions during El Niño, PAGASA said the western side of the country could still have above-normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon or habagat season. The southwest monsoon season is usually from June to September, but it can also begin in the latter part of May.

PAGASA also said there may be fewer tropical cyclones due to El Niño, but they could still reach typhoon and super typhoon categories.

The country is still in the middle of its warm and dry season, which began late March. – Rappler.com