Dogecoin Price Prediction as DOGE ETF Inflows Stall

Key Insights

• Dogecoin price has formed a head-and-shoulders pattern.
• DOGE ETF inflows have stalled this month.
• Dogecoin’s futures open interest have also wavered.

Dogecoin price has moved sideways this month and is now hovering near its lowest level this year. DOGE was trading at $0.0973 on Friday, down by over 80% from its November 2024 high. It may be on the cusp of a strong bearish breakdown as DOGE ETF inflows fade and a risky pattern forms.

Dogecoin Price Has Formed a Multi-Year H&S Pattern

The weekly chart shows that Dogecoin price may be at risk of a deep crash in the coming months. First, it has just formed a death cross pattern as the 50-week and 200-week moving averages have crossed each other. It is the first time in years that the death cross pattern has formed.

Second, and most importantly, the coin has just formed a multi-year head and shoulders pattern. The head section was at its all-time high of $0.4845, while the left shoulder was at $0.2257. The right shoulder was at $0.30, and the coin is now hovering at the neckline.

The coin has dropped below the Supertrend and the Ichimoku cloud indicators, a sign that bears remains in control. Therefore, the most likely Dogecoin price forecast is bearish, with the initial target being the year-to-date low of $0.079. A drop below that level will point to more downside, potentially to $0.050.

Spot DOGE ETFs Have Largely Backfired

A major Dogecoin price catalyst has become a flop. In this, the highly anticipated spot Dogecoin ETFs have not become popular among investors in the United States.

Data compiled by SoSoValue shows that spot Dogecoin ETFs have added just $9.17 million in assets since their launch a few months ago. As a result, these funds now hold just $11.20 million in assets, equivalent to 0.08% of their market capitalization.

In contrast, Bitcoin ETFs hold $102 billion in assets, 6.5% of the market cap. Ethereum funds, on the other hand, hold $13.7 billion in assets, which is 4.90% of its valuation.

According to SoSoValue, the three funds by Bitwise, Grayscale, and 21Shares have not added any inflows in the past eight consecutive market days. This is notable as top crypto funds have added over $1 billion in assets in this period.

A likely reason for this is that American investors are skeptical of buying an ETF tracking a meme coin. Also, these investors are afraid to buy altcoin ETFs, as others like Litecoin, Avalanche, and Polkadot have not added substantial assets.

Another reason is that Dogecoin ETFs have higher fees than the others. Grayscale’s GDOG has an expense ratio of 0.35%, while 21Shares TDOG and Bitwise’s BWOW costs 0.36%. In contrast, the recently launched Morgan Stanley Bitcoin ETF costs just 0.14%.

Meanwhile, data compiled by CoinGlass shows that demand for the token in the futures market has faded this year. The futures open interest stood at $1.36 billion on Saturday, down from last year’s high of $5.5 billion.

Dogecoin’s funding rate has moved sideways in the past few months, a sign of low liquidity in the market.

One reason for the ongoing Dogecoin price consolidation is that Elon Musk is no longer tweeting about it as he used to before. His tweets about it in 2021 helped to push it from an obscure coin into the biggest meme coin in the industry.

In this regard, Musk has not talked about whether he will add it on the upcoming X Money platform. While cryptocurrencies will be part of it, the focus will likely be on stablecoins that are less volatile.

Macro factors are also contributing to the waning demand for Dogecoin. The ongoing Iran war has led to investors moving to safe-haven assets, which explains why Bitcoin ETF inflows have risen.

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