Topline
Younger consumers and households earning under $100,000 are cutting back on restaurant spending, Chipotle CEO Scott Boatwright said this week, while noting a broader pullback across the industry, as shares of fast casual chains from Sweetgreen to Cava also continue to slide.
MIAMI, FL – APRIL 27: Chipotle restaurant workers fill orders for customers on the day that the company announced it will only use non-GMO ingredients in its food on April 27, 2015 in Miami, Florida. The company announced, that the Denver-based chain would not use the GMO’s, which is an organism whose genome has been altered via genetic engineering in the food served at Chipotle Mexican Grills. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)
Getty Images
Key Facts
Chipotle CEO Scott Boatwright said households earning under $100,000—which make up roughly 40% of Chipotle’s total sales—are dining out less often, with 25-35 year olds hit hardest.
Chipotle shares have fallen 43.7% over the past year and 19.2% in October.
Similarly, fellow fast casual chains Cava and Sweetgreen have suffered: Cava stock has dropped 59.9% over the past year and 10.5% in October, hitting a 52-week low Friday, while Sweetgreen shares have also declined 82.8% over the past year and 21.5% over the past month.
Wingstop also struggled with shares down 26.1% over the past year and 13.9% in October.
Shake Shack stock is down 20.4% from a year ago, though rose 3.6% in October, following stronger quarterly results that showed 15.9% revenue growth and a swing back to profitability.
Key Background
Boatwright said the pressure facing Chipotle’s core customers reflects a broader industry trend, as rising unemployment, loan repayments, inflation, and slower wage growth weigh on diners’ budgets. The National Restaurant Association’s 2025 report echoes that concern, showing 40% of consumers have cut spending and another 41% are delaying purchases amid financial uncertainty. The report also found that 95% of restaurant operators said customers were increasingly value conscious than in previous years.
What To Watch For
Some traditional fast-food chains have also felt the squeeze but less sharply than the fast casual sector. Wendy’s has been the clear outlier, with shares plunging 55.9% over the past year following leadership turnover and a weak sales quarter earlier this year, per CNN. Restaurant Brands International – parent company to Burger King, Tim Hortons, Popeyes, and Firehouse Subs – sustained a 5.5% decline, even as consolidated sales rose 6.9% year over year. McDonald’s has held relatively steady, gaining 1.3% this year, buoyed likely by strategic value meal promotions in early 2025 that drew back middle-income diners, though spending among lower-income diners remains soft, according to CNN. Meanwhile, Yum Brands which owns KFC, TacoBell and Pizza Hut is also up slightly by 4.5% this year, likely due to steady sales growth and a diversified global portfolio that has helped it navigate a challenging macroeconomic environment, according to Yahoo Finance. In early November, Wendy’s, McDonald’s, and Yum Brands will report third-quarter results, offering a clearer view of how the fast-food giants are performing.
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/martinacastellanos/2025/10/31/fast-casual-chains-chipotle-cava-more-sound-alarm-on-drop-off-in-lower-income-customers/
