Mariners, Nationals Kick Off Winter Meetings With Intriguing Trade

Major League Baseball’s Winter Meetings, always a hotbed of player movement, kick off this weekend in Orlando, Florida. The Mariners and Nationals made the first official transaction of this year’s festivities, with lefthanded reliever Jose A. Ferrer headed to Seattle in exchange for top catching prospect Harry Ford (and minor league pitcher Isaac Lyon).

On one hand, it’s a fairly typical present for future trade between a contender and an also-ran. But on another, it’s a top prospect at a premium position for a relatively low-ceiling player at a comparatively fungible position. The knee-jerk reaction is to believe that the Mariners didn’t drive a hard enough bargain for an exceptionally valuable commodity. That’s what the very interesting Baseball Trade Values website thinks, at least.

But when you take a step back and put Ferrer under a little more scrutiny, it becomes much easier to see the Mariners’ side of this deal.

Despite the fact that he only has eight major league at bats under his belt, Ford, who turns 23 this winter, might actually be the more known quantity in this deal. He was the 12th overall pick in the 2021 draft, and has consistently been a top five prospect in the Mariner system ever since. He’s a well rounded prospect without an in-your-face strength or glaring weakness, and he was obviously blocked by AL MVP runnerup Cal Raleigh in Seattle. He was the M’s #4 prospect before the deal, and slots in at #2 in his new organization.

Each year I prepare an ordered list of top position player prospects, based solely on offensive statistical performance relative to league and level, adjusted for age. He has checked in at #85, #75, #140 and #94 from 2022-25, pretty good for a catcher being judged on his offense only.

Is he a future All Star? I’m guessing not, but he should be a solid, reliable regular at a premium position, and that’s very valuable.

Then there’s Ferrer. At first glance, he’s nothing special. 8-4, 4.36, 12 saves in 142 1/3 MLB innings. He turns 26 this winter. Dig a little deeper, however, and he is a very interesting guy.

First of all, he throws 98 MPH from the left side. Secondly, this is a power sinker. He’s one of the game’s pre-eminent grounder generators, posting a -0.2 degree average launch angle allowed last season. He allows weak contact across the board – in 2025, his average fly ball (87.0 mph) and liner (87.5 mph) exit speeds allowed are right there with his grounder (86.5 mph) mark.

And perhaps most importantly, Ferrer is a workhorse. His 76 1/3 innings out of the pen ranked 6th in the majors among pitchers without a start last season. And his 11 saves were more than twice as many as those other five guys had combined. He meshed volume and quality with leverage better than any other reliever in the game last season.

Oh, and about that high ERA of his. His career FIP is nearly a full run lower, and it’s confirmed by my batted-ball based “Tru” ERA stat, which has him at 3.29 in 2025. The Mariners are also acquiring four years of team control of Ferrer, a pretty big deal.

Flaws? He’s been much better – almost 100 points of batting average better – against same-handed pitching for his career. But there’s nothing in his repertoire or profile that suggests he won’t improve in that area and become at least league average against opposite-handed pitching.

One other important point – one simply has to take into consideration these two clubs’ respective competitive situations when evaluating this deal. The Nats need building blocks, and they got one, at the cost of a relatively young, cost-controllable reliever. You make that deal.

The M’s are a contender that relies on run prevention. It should be noted that two of the five relievers ahead of Ferrer in 2025 relief innings without a start were Mariners – Eduard Bazardo and Carlos Vargas. They now have a third such bullpen arm, and no offense to the other two, this guy is a class higher qualitatively. Not as good as M’s closer Andres Munoz, mind you, but a strong #2 behind him. They are planting their flag on Raleigh behind the plate, which seems like a no-brainer, but actually might not be in three years or so. They are doubling down on their short-to-intermediate term contention window, and are clearly better within it due to this deal. From their perspective, you have to make this deal too, no?

So the Winter Meetings are off and running. There will be bigger and more controversial trades and free agent signings. But this one is a tasty hors d’oeuvre that sets the table nicely for what will follow.