AERO Technical Analysis Jan 21

AERO is positioned at a critical juncture at $0.49. Despite a daily 5.56% rise, the overall downtrend continues; RSI is in the neutral zone (41.86) and MACD shows a negative histogram. Both bull and bear scenarios are supported by strong support/resistance levels, so it’s essential to be prepared for both directions.

Current Market Situation

AERO traded in the $0.45-$0.49 range over the last 24 hours and rose 5.56% from the $0.49 level, but volume remained limited at $18.86M. The overall trend is downward; price is trading below EMA20 ($0.53) and the Supertrend indicator is giving a bear signal, limited by $0.60 resistance. RSI is neutral at 41.86, but MACD’s negative histogram reflects selling pressure. In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, 9 strong levels were identified on 1D/3D/1W: 1D has 1 support/0 resistance, 3D has 2S/1R, 1W has 2S/3R. Main support at $0.4781 (strength score 63/100), no strong resistance. This structure indicates a fragile balance with short-term recovery potential.

Scenario 1: Bullish Scenario

How Does This Scenario Unfold?

For the bullish scenario, the $0.4781 support must hold first and price must settle above EMA20 ($0.53). RSI must rise above 50 and gain momentum, with the MACD histogram crossing above the zero line. If the Supertrend resistance at $0.60 breaks, momentum increases toward weekly resistances (3R levels on 1W). A 50%+ volume increase and positive candlestick patterns (e.g., bullish engulfing) provide confirmation. If 3D supports come into play in MTF, a short-term trend reversal becomes possible. This scenario is triggered by increased overall market risk appetite; invalidation is a close below $0.4781.

Target Levels

First target $0.60 (Supertrend resistance), then tracking MTF resistances up to $0.7431 (strength score 30). Higher up, 1W levels at $0.80+ can be tested. R/R ratio from current price is approximately 1:1.5 (potential 51% return), but volume confirmation is required. Follow current charts on the AERO Spot Analysis and AERO Futures Analysis pages.

Scenario 2: Downside Scenario

Risk Factors

The downside scenario is triggered by a daily close below the $0.4781 support (63/100 score). If the MACD negative histogram expands, RSI falls below 30, and deviation below EMA20 increases, momentum shifts to selling. The Supertrend bear signal strengthens, testing the two weekly support levels. A volume spike with negative candles (e.g., evening star) heightens risk. In MTF, excess resistance on 1W (3R) can limit upside moves. This scenario accelerates with a BTC drop or general altcoin selling; invalidation is a close above $0.53.

Protection Levels

First protection after $0.4781 break is 3D supports, targeting $0.1490 (strength score 22). Lower down, 1W supports can drop to the $0.30 band. R/R from current price is 1:1.4 (potential 70% loss), stop-loss recommended above $0.50. In a downside move, monitor AERO Spot and Futures data.

Which Scenario to Watch?

Main triggers: For bullish, $0.4781 hold + $0.53 break and RSI>50; for downside, $0.4781 break + MACD bearish cross. Volume increase and candlestick patterns are confirmation requirements. Monitor pivot points on daily/4H charts; MTF alignment (e.g., 3D support holding) favors bulls, 1W resistance rejection favors bears. Manage positions using early invalidation levels in both scenarios.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at $89,877 (+1.47%) in a downtrend; Supertrend bearish, rising dominance risky for altcoins. If BTC holds $89,199 support, AERO can recover (high correlation); if $87,304 breaks, AERO tests $0.4781. Resistances at $90,944-$92,472; BTC rally carries AERO to $0.60. Prioritize BTC levels, as altcoin moves are 80%+ tied to BTC.

Conclusion and Monitoring Notes

AERO’s pivot at $0.4781; above $0.53-$0.60, below $0.40 band critical. Track RSI/MACD divergence, volume, and BTC moves daily. Confirm scenarios with MTF levels, avoid hasty decisions. Get data from Spot and Futures pages. This analysis encourages your own research.