The S&P 500 (SPX) continues to correct the cycle that began from the April 7, 2025 low. The internal subdivision of this correction is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave structure, which reflects a complex corrective pattern rather than a simple decline. From the January 28, 2026 peak, wave (W) concluded at 6636.04, as illustrated in the 45‑minute chart. Within wave (W), the internal subdivision itself developed as another double three of lesser degree. In this sequence, wave W ended at 6775.5, wave X at 6952.51, and wave Y at 6636.04. This completed wave (W) at the higher degree.
Following this, wave (X) produced a corrective rally that terminated at 6884.9. The index has since resumed its downward trajectory in wave (Y). From the peak of wave (X), wave ((a)) ended at 6623.92, while wave ((b)) rallied to 6754.3. The near‑term outlook suggests that as long as the pivot at 6844.92 remains intact, rallies are expected to fail in either three or seven swings, leading to further downside pressure. This aligns with the broader corrective structure and reinforces the bearish bias.
The potential target for the decline is measured using the 100% to 161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave (W). This extension projects a zone between 6247 and 6475. Within this area, buyers may emerge, offering the possibility of renewed upside momentum. Thus, while the short‑term path favors weakness, the medium‑term view anticipates that the correction could eventually provide a base for another rally once the projected support zone is tested.
S&P 500 (SPX) 45-minute Elliott Wave chart
SPX Elliott Wave [Video]
Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/spx-elliott-wave-chart-larger-decline-resumes-video-202603190302
