Is Bitcoin’s Rally a Bear Trap? Elliott Wave Analysts Flag C-Wave Risk

TLDR:

• Analysts warn Bitcoin’s recent rally fits a corrective B-Wave structure, not a true bull market reversal. 
• A confirmed C-Wave decline could bring final capitulation, fading optimism, and lower lows for Bitcoin.
• Trader Daan Crypto notes bulls are defending prior lows, with a summer consolidation range still possible.
• The $60,000 level is now the critical threshold separating continued recovery from a deeper BTC correction. 

Bitcoin’s recent price recovery is drawing scrutiny from market analysts who believe the rally fits the profile of a corrective B-Wave structure. If this reading holds, traders may be navigating the final phase of the current bear market cycle.

The broader question now is whether the next leg lower is already beginning, or if bulls can reclaim key levels before momentum shifts decisively.

Bitcoin B-Wave Rally Mirrors Classic Bear Market Patterns

Bear markets rarely move in straight lines, and Bitcoin’s recent run higher appears to follow a familiar script. The B-Wave phase is well-documented in Elliott Wave theory as a corrective recovery within a larger downtrend.

It tends to produce strong price action, improved sentiment, and bullish media coverage that pulls in fresh participants.

Analyst More Crypto Online flagged this pattern on social media, warning that the rally may have already run its course.

According to the analyst, B-Waves often convince traders that a new bull market has started. The structure, however, lacks the impulsive characteristics of a genuine trend reversal.

This distinction matters because corrective rallies and true bull markets require very different trading approaches. Misreading the structure has historically led to poorly timed entries near cycle peaks.

Traders who bought into optimism during B-Wave highs in previous cycles often faced the steepest drawdowns in the phase that followed.

C-Wave Decline Could Bring Final Capitulation

If the B-Wave reading proves accurate, Bitcoin may now be entering the C-Wave, the final and often most psychologically damaging leg of a bear market.

This phase is typically marked by fading optimism, consecutive failed bounces, and growing apathy among retail participants. Sentiment gradually shifts from “buy the dip” to frustration.

More Crypto Online outlined specific warning signs traders should monitor closely. These include a failure to reclaim key resistance levels, rallies that lack five-wave impulsive structure, and bearish momentum building after each bounce. Together, these signals suggest distribution rather than accumulation.

Historically, C-Waves accelerate as weak hands exit and hope gives way to exhaustion. Volume tends to dry up, and price often makes lower lows with little media attention. That quiet, overlooked decline is often when the cycle bottom forms.

$60K Support Remains Critical for Short-Term Outlook

Not all analysts share an immediately bearish view. Trader Daan Crypto raised a different scenario, noting that bulls stepped in to defend a key prior low.

With Bitcoin on track to close the week above the 200-week moving average, a large consolidation range could be forming through the summer months.

Daan described $60,000 as the level that must hold to keep this scenario intact. A sustained break below that zone would shift the technical picture meaningfully. Conversely, holding current levels keeps both the bullish and bearish interpretations open.

Both perspectives reflect a market still searching for direction after a prolonged period of uncertainty. Whether Bitcoin is coiling for another leg lower or building a base, the $60,000 region remains the clearest line between continued recovery and deeper correction.

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