Galaxy Digital Cuts CLARITY Act Approval Odds to 60% As Crypto Falls Down Senate Pecking Order

Galaxy Digital has lowered its odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 by a staggering 15% in less than a month. Analysts at the financial services firm opine that pressing national issues will take precedence over the CLARITY Act in the coming weeks, dampening the chances of the bill becoming law.

Odds For CLARITY Act Passage in 2026 Falls

Alex Thorn, Head of Firmwide Research at Galaxy Digital, has confirmed that the company has re-evaluated the chances of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026. According to a research alert distributed to investors, Galaxy Digital is now pegging the odds of the crypto market structure bill at 60%.

Previously, the odds stood at 75%, with the latest assessment representing a 15% decline for the CLARITY Act. Galaxy Digital’s analysts disclosed that the falling odds are intricately linked to a busy Senate calendar in the coming weeks.

Thorn added that the CLARITY Act must pass the Senate before the month-long August recess to stand a chance of becoming law before the end of the year. In early June, the bill was officially placed in the US Senate Legislative Calendar, stoking enthusiasm for early passage.“We continue to believe the bill needs to pass the Senate (and probably the House) before the August recess, which is now scheduled to begin at the end of July,” wrote Thorn. “After that, the window effectively closes.”

Thorn hinged his argument on the historical basis that no major legislation advances in the fall of a midterm election year. He added that with campaigns underway and limited floor time, the 60-vote bill faces an uphill climb to become law.

Previously, Senator Cynthia Lummis had sparked fears of a lengthy passage, hinting at a drawn-out final vote. Meanwhile, the odds of the CLARITY Act passing into law by the end of the year have dipped on prediction marketplaces. On Kalshi, the odds dropped from 50% to 48%, while the odds on Polymarket fell from 55% to 51%.

Source: Kalshi

AI, Border Security, and FISA Crowd Out Crypto, says Galaxy Digital

A key point in Galaxy Digital’s decision to lower the odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 rests on changing priorities for the Senate. Thorn noted that the crypto market structure bill lost valuable floor time as senators deliberated over Trump’s administration’s anti-weaponization fund. Furthermore, debates around the ICE and Border Patrol funding package and the  FISA reauthorization vote will take attention off the CLARITY Act.

This week, the Senate Banking Committee will be focused on policy issues revolving around artificial intelligence. The committee will hold a meeting on June 11 titled “Hearings to examine AI and the American dream, focusing on promoting innovation, affordability and American dominance.”“Each of these is individually minor, but together they tell the story,” noted Thorn. “There are only a handful of usable weeks left, and other priorities keep claiming them.”

Apart from a raft of pressing legislative issues, Galaxy Digital reviewed its odds for the CLARITY Act over a lull in the negotiations around the bill. Analysts noted that no meaningful headlines emerged to push the needle forward while ethics provisions are still unresolved.However, Galaxy Digital says it will increase the odds if it sees “credible floor commitment” in the coming weeks. Furthermore, if ethical and illicit-finance questions are resolved in a way to guarantee additional Democrat votes, Galaxy Digital will also increase the odds of a bill passage.