Lindsey Graham’s Iran obsession could finally come back to haunt him

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) announced a last-minute streaming event with President Donald Trump on Monday night, and there might be good reason for it. Graham hasn't faced a serious primary challenge in years, but now he is.

According to The Christian Science Monitor, Graham could face a runoff in his Republican Primary due to voters' displeasure with the war in Iran.

"A poll conducted late last month by The Citadel raised some eyebrows when it showed Mr. Graham falling short of the 50 percent needed in the June 9 primary vote to avoid a runoff," the Monitor cited.

Graham will likely win his general election, but he has lower approval ratings than other major Republican officeholders, according to March numbers from a statewide poll conducted by Impact Research. That has changed since the November 2025 Winthrop Poll, which found that Graham's numbers were worsening. In November, 38 percent of voters in the state viewed him positively. After the Iran war, those numbers are now 34 percent.

The report considers Graham's political survival, given his knack for adapting to shifts within the Republican Party. He was once seen as a problem solver who was able to work across the aisle with Democrats and even held strong friendships with people like Joe Biden and those in the Obama administration. That took a huge turn when Trump came on the scene.

“He knows which way the political wind blows,” explained political scientist Scott Huffmon, who oversees the Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research at Winthrop University in Rock Hill, South Carolina. “People say, ‘Oh we need to get Lindsey Graham out.’ But he always ends up in the right place at the right time.”

That hasn't been the case on the Iran war, however. "Graham early on staked out a prominent and uncompromising position, making the case on television and on social media, and doubling down even as the military mission appeared to stall. Indeed, he is more closely identified with the conflict than perhaps any other lawmaker in Washington, having boasted about his role in convincing Mr. Trump to go to war," the report said.

It is likely the reason for his dip in polling, the report said. His state might be deep red, but the Monitor said that two-thirds of South Carolina adults say groceries are difficult to afford.

One such opponent is Mark Lynch, who withdrew $5 million from his and his wife's retirement fund to run for the Senate. He's been on Graham for passing the "One Big Beautiful Bill," which didn't rein in spending the way Republicans had pledged it would.

The sharpest attacks come on Iran, however. “People are tired of him getting [the United States] into endless, needless wars,” Lynch said in an interview.

There are a whopping five Republicans in the primary against Graham, but Lynch is the one giving Graham the biggest challenge. Others are polling in the single digits. If Graham fails to make it over 50 percent, it means he and Lynch are likely headed for the runoff.

Graham's team has accused Lynch of cocaine trafficking 42 years ago, when Lynch said he was a drug addict. He is now sober.

Whichever Republican wins will likely face Democrat Annie Andrews, a pediatrician who has been leading the primary race.

Graham is getting hit by other races, too, however. Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) is running for governor and has been the thorn in the side of the many Republicans.

“Lindsey Graham needs to be removed from the Situation Room. I don’t want to hear one word from a guy with no kids, desperately sending our sons and daughters into war on the ground in Iran,” Mace wrote on social media.

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