7 marginal seats marked as key battlegrounds in Johor polls

PETALING JAYA: An analyst has highlighted seven marginal seats that could determine the outcome of the Johor state election next month, having been won with slim majorities in the 2022 polls.

The seats are Bukit Batu, won by Pakatan Harapan with a 137-vote majority; Bukit Pasir (Barisan Nasional – 198); Parit Yaani (BN – 294); Tangkak (PH – 372); Serom (BN – 699); Bukit Kepong (Perikatan Nasional – 710); and Jementah (PH – 714).

Different results in the seats that BN won may not have stopped the party from forming the state government in 2022, but BN could have been denied the two-thirds majority of 38 seats it enjoyed. BN had won 40 seats.

Ilham Centre executive director Hisommudin Bakar said the marginal victories meant that no party had a comfortable edge in these constituencies, making them key battlegrounds.

Hisommudin said several factors would determine who emerges the victor, including the number of parties vying for the seats, which could split votes.

The biggest element was the voter turnout, he said. “In Johor, a low voter turnout would conventionally be to BN’s advantage, because it has a wide organisational network in the state and a more stable base of core supporters it can bank on.

“If the turnout reaches 70% to 75%, PH stands to gain more through the mobilisation of non-Malay voters, young voters, and progressive Malay voters,” he told FMT.

He said the biggest challenge each party faced in the seven seats would be wooing first-time youth voters. “This segment of voters does not have a clear record of political support. They’re not tied down by traditional loyalty to any party,” he added.

“And in terms of number, they are becoming more significant in the structure of Johor’s electorate and in marginal seats. This cohort of young voters could become kingmakers who would determine the winner.”

Mazlan Ali of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia said marginal seats like the seven were still too close to call, adding that the situation now differs from 2022 when the country was just recovering from the Covid-19 pandemic. Many outstation voters did not return to Johor, causing turnout to fall to about 54%, he said.

In comparison, voter turnout during the general election stood averaged at around 75% in Johor, tipping the balance to PH as it won 13 parliamentary seats in the southern state compared with BN’s nine.

Mazlan said the rapid urbanisation of Johor also needed to be considered, as this could influence the leanings of voters, particularly in mixed and urban seats.

He agreed that a low turnout would favour BN, thanks to its incumbency as state government and better organised core support base. “However, if the turnout of voters reaches 75% to 80%, PH could potentially wrest marginal seats previously won by BN.”