Key Highlights
- First inflation measurements since Iran conflict began: March CPI and February PCE reports scheduled
- March employment report showed 178,000 new positions, surpassing the 65,000 forecast
- Crude prices surged more than 50% following war outbreak, pushing gasoline beyond $4 nationwide
- Delta Air Lines earnings Wednesday will reveal jet fuel expense impact on carrier profitability
- Major indices snapped five consecutive weeks of declines, climbing at minimum 3%
Investors are preparing for a pivotal week featuring critical inflation measurements, quarterly corporate results, and continued monitoring of the Iran conflict’s economic ramifications.
Last week’s trading session saw the S&P 500 advance 1.6%, while the Dow Jones climbed 1.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite surged 2.2%. The rally ended a five-week decline for all three benchmarks. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 and Dow remain lower by 3.8% and 3.2%, respectively.
[[IMG_2]]E-Mini S&P 500 Jun 26 (ES=F)Friday’s employment data for March significantly exceeded analyst projections. The report revealed 178,000 nonfarm payroll additions versus consensus estimates of 65,000. This represented a sharp reversal from February’s 92,000 job losses.
Critical Inflation Measurements Approaching
Thursday delivers the February Personal Consumption Expenditures index, an inflation gauge the Federal Reserve prioritizes. Analyst consensus projects a 0.4% monthly advance and 2.8% annual growth.
[[IMG_3]]Source: Forex FactoryFriday presents the more significant release: March’s Consumer Price Index. Forecasters anticipate a 0.9% monthly increase and 3.4% annual rise. February’s CPI registered 2.4% annually. This upcoming report represents the initial measurement incorporating Iran war-related pricing effects.
National average gasoline prices exceeded $4 per gallon last week, per AAA data. Goldman Sachs analyst Ben Shumway noted escalating costs are “contributing to further deterioration in consumer sentiment from previously depressed readings.”
Corporate Results and Conflict Implications
Delta Air Lines releases quarterly results Wednesday morning before market open. The carrier’s performance will illuminate how elevated aviation fuel expenses are impacting airline sector margins. Constellation Brands and Levi Strauss additionally report during the period.
Street analysts forecast earnings expansion exceeding 13% across the S&P 500 overall, per FactSet data.
Oil prices have climbed over 50% during the five weeks since hostilities commenced. Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz remains virtually nonexistent. Trump conducted a Monday briefing alongside military leadership as his self-established deadline for strait reopening nears.
Paola Rodriguez-Masiu, Rystad Energy’s chief oil analyst, indicated the temporary cushion that initially contained price increases from pre-conflict petroleum inventories is now depleting.
The Federal Reserve’s March policy meeting minutes release Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET. Market participants broadly anticipate the Fed will maintain current interest rates at its upcoming April session.
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