[Inside the Newsroom] 2026 oil crisis: How can we create ripples of hope?

It’s been less than four years since we survived the COVID-19 crisis, and another one is hitting us more severely — this time, in our pockets. 

While COVID-19 is essentially a health crisis, the 2026 oil crisis is mainly a price shock — for now. 

Even if the current ceasefire between the US and Iran leads to an end to the conflict in the Middle East, petroleum prices are not expected to go back to affordable levels due to damaged facilities in the Middle East. Rebuilding will take years, oil industry experts say.

Hi, I’m Gani de Castro, senior desk editor of Rappler. In the newsroom, we’ve tried to keep readers updated on the war in the Middle East using Reuters; for local content, we have provided various types of information focusing on its impact on our society. 

We are only in the early stages of the price shocks.

Jeepney drivers have limited or stopped plying their routes in most areas as diesel becomes unaffordable. As one jeepney driver told Rappler, “Ang sakit sa puso.” (It pains my heart.)

Commuters are skipping important events like family funerals due to high transport costs.

Cebu Pacific and Philippine Airlines have canceled or reduced select flights, and fuel surcharges have gone up. 

Commercial and small fisherfolk, who travel to sea using diesel or gasoline, are “at the edge” as fuel prices continue to rise. 

Vegetable farmers are letting their crops rot since they won’t make money by harvesting and delivering them.

In Cebu, small boat owners are seeing fewer customers as tourism takes a hit.

Manufacturers and traders of goods sold in groceries, supermarkets, and other retail stores say they can no longer hold back on price increases following appeals from the government.

Amid the initial shock, debates have surfaced on how best to mitigate the big price increases. Proposals range from removing taxes on fuel to using the money instead for direct intervention for the people who need it most. 

Rappler has published a number of columns by University of the Philippines economics professor JC Punongbayan on why the policies during the regime of Ferdinand E. Marcos should not be repeated.

• [In This Economy] Beware of populist measures to address the oil price shock
• [In This Economy] Marcos’ new fuel tax law: A gift to the wealthy?
• [In This Economy] Beware the allure of price caps on fuel and food

A key factor many forget in this debate is how badly our public finances turned for the worse during the Rodrigo Duterte and Ferdinand Marcos Jr. administrations. Subsidizing fuel again could lead to a fiscal crisis that will make matters worse for the country. These are lessons learned not just from our experience but also from other countries.

The price shocks will worsen in the coming months, and it can turn into a personal security crisis: more robberies, possibly even looting, kidnappings, and other crimes.

Prices of food and most other commodities will continue to climb in the coming months, and will badly hit our pockets by the second half of the year. (READ: Worst-case scenario: At least 50% rice, pork, chicken price hike if Gulf crisis persists)

Lower-middle-class households or those just above the poverty line will fall into poverty, setting back the little progress we’ve gained in reducing poverty incidence.

With supply chains broken, shortages of various commodities will be felt in the medium and long term. (READ: [Vantage Point] When fuel stops being a cost and becomes a constraint)

Sustaining rice production will be difficult as farmers skimp on using fertilizers. Food insecurity is seen to worsen in the coming years.

Many overseas workers in the Middle East face job losses as the war shuts down establishments, and two Filipinos in Israel have been killed.

Faced with a powerful socio-economic storm, the Filipino people will have to tap into our strengths: the strong social bonds, especially family and community ties, that have helped us overcome crisis after crisis. 

A number have already started, such as the community pantries that assisted thousands during the pandemic. 

We need more of these initiatives. 

Recall: 

• How our health workers here and abroad risked their lives during the pandemic.
• How billionaires and big companies bought expensive COVID-19 vaccines and gave them for free. 
• How retail conglomerates helped their tenants by not charging rent even if it meant financial losses.
• How NGOs and civic-minded individuals worked together to buy farmers’ produce. 

Already, we’ve heard stories of commuters tipping jeepney drivers or not getting their loose change.

We need more of these acts because the government’s ayuda (aid) — though helpful — is simply too slow, given the magnitude of those who need it, and certainly not enough for those hard-hit by the price shocks. 

In addition, moving forward, let us begin to draft a national plan toward energy security: a faster shift to renewables at the national, local, and household levels. We should consider the suggestion of a Petron Corporation officer to have a national strategic petroleum reserve, essentially a tank farm filled with crude oil or imported fuels. It’s a best practice in many countries to cushion sudden oil price shocks.

We can’t control fuel prices, but we can further reduce our dependency on imported petroleum in the long term, and be better prepared for wars that lead to fuel shortages.

Let’s use the 2026 oil crisis as another opportunity to create ripples of public and private initiatives that bring hope amid difficult times. – Rappler.com

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