Iran has declared that a deal is still “far off,” keeping the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed. The market on Trump announcing a lifting of the US blockade by May 31 sits at 78% YES, down from 90% yesterday.
The sub-market for Trump’s announcement by April 19 is at 8% YES. The 70-point spread between April 19 and May 31 suggests traders expect no change in the near term but are pricing in some chance of a later resolution.
In the ships transiting the Strait market, the odds for fewer than 10 ships transiting by April 19 are effectively zero. Thin trading volume and negligible USDC movement point to little confidence in any near-term change in maritime traffic.
The USDC figures tell a more grounded story. Volume is $9,914/day in the blockade announcement market and a mere $14/day in the ships transit market. It takes just $1,419 to shift the Trump announcement market 5 points, meaning the market is susceptible to significant moves from relatively modest trades.
Iran’s firm stance keeps the situation tense. No progress in negotiations and continued blockades reinforce the status quo. At 78¢, a YES share on the May 31 market pays $1 if the blockade is lifted, a 1.28x return. Traders need to believe a substantial diplomatic breakthrough is coming to justify that price.
Watch for diplomatic moves from the US or conciliatory signals from Iran before betting on a resolution. Any Pentagon or White House statement altering the blockade stance would be the trigger.
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Source: https://cryptobriefing.com/iran-says-deal-far-off-as-hormuz-strait-remains-closed/
