Oil Prices Slip as Iran Agrees to Send Team to US Talks in Pakistan

TLDR

• Brent crude fell over 1% to $94.44 after Monday’s 5.6% gain, as Iran agreed to send a delegation to talks in Pakistan
• The US ceasefire with Iran expires Wednesday, and Trump says an extension is “highly unlikely”
• Hormuz shipping remains near a standstill, cutting off roughly a fifth of global crude supply
• Saudi Arabia and UAE are rerouting oil through alternative terminals, with combined loading rising to 6.5 million barrels per day
• Citigroup warns oil could hit $110 a barrel if Hormuz disruption continues for another month

Oil prices slipped on Tuesday after Iran indicated it would send a team to peace talks with the US in Islamabad, Pakistan. The move came despite Iranian officials publicly opposing further negotiations.

Brent crude dropped as much as 1.1% to $94.44 a barrel, pulling back after a 5.6% gain on Monday. West Texas Intermediate fell 0.9% to $86.68 a barrel in Asian trade.

Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the country would not negotiate “under the shadow of threats” from Washington. But a Wall Street Journal report said Iran had privately told regional mediators it would send a delegation to Pakistan this week.

It remains unclear who will lead the Iranian delegation.

Vice President JD Vance is traveling to resume talks, expected either Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. Trump said Sunday it is “highly unlikely” he would extend the ceasefire, which expires Wednesday evening Washington time.

Trump also confirmed that a US naval blockade against Iran will stay in place until a peace deal is reached. The US Navy seized an Iranian vessel over the weekend, which prompted Tehran to reimpose controls on the Strait of Hormuz.

Hormuz Shipping Remains Stalled

The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively blocked since the war began in late February. Iran briefly reopened the channel over the weekend before closing it again.

Only three vessels attempted to transit the strait early Tuesday. The waterway normally handles about a fifth of the world’s crude oil supplies.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE have started rerouting shipments to avoid Hormuz. They are using the Yanbu terminal in the Red Sea and the Fujairah terminal in the Gulf of Oman. Combined loading at these two facilities has risen to 6.5 million barrels per day, up from 5.0 million before the war.

What Analysts Are Saying

Citigroup said oil prices could rise to $110 a barrel if Hormuz remains disrupted for another month.

The International Energy Agency’s executive director Fatih Birol warned that global energy markets could stay volatile for up to two years due to the conflict.

Chinese President Xi Jinping called for an immediate ceasefire and the restoration of normal Hormuz transit on Monday, in a phone call with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

As of Tuesday morning, no confirmed second round of US-Iran talks had been scheduled, and the ceasefire deadline remains Wednesday evening.

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