April’s 11.81% Bitcoin Close Is Now the Setup for a May Selloff

 Bitcoin bounced off the daily TBO fast line after an 11.81% April close, but MooninPapa says the weekly structure and seasonal data still point lower.

Bitcoin found short-term support off the daily TBO fast line Thursday, bouncing 0.75% before adding another 0.5% into the new month. April closed at 11.81%. A strong number by most reads.

That is exactly what worries MooninPapa, the crypto analyst who writes daily market updates on X.

“Nothing that’s happening right now is deterring me or making me believe that price is going to automatically shoot up a lot higher,” MooninPapa said on X. The target was 9% for April. It ran to 11%. Be happy, he said. Then he showed the May data.

April Ran Hot. The Calendar Flips Cold

In previous bottom years, May has averaged losses of around 17% across the 2018 and 2022 cycles. June has run worse, with declines near 25% to 26% in those same years. The 2014 cycle recorded a May drop near 40%, though MooninPapa acknowledges that market was far less mature.

The seasonal pattern does not shift because April outperformed. If anything, a fuel-burning rally into a weak seasonal window sets up a harder landing.

On the weekly chart, Bitcoin has rejected the TBO fast line multiple times now. The week of January 12, 2026 produced a rejection. Then April 13. Then April 20. Then April 27. Price tagged it each time and failed to close above. MooninPapa says he does not expect that to change.

RSI bounced off longer-term support at 45.4 on Wednesday before the move higher. Volume, however, remains net negative on balance. The next high-volume red candle, per his analysis, will push the on-balance volume line below its moving average, a signal that preceded major pullbacks at the end of both January and March.

ETH and the Altcoin Market Look Worse

Ethereum closed April up just 0.2%. RSI lost support clearly on Wednesday and Thursday before recovering slightly, sitting near 40.47. On-balance volume crossed below its moving average Tuesday and has stayed there. The daily TBO fast line is now above price.

MooninPapa put it plainly on X. The white OBV moving average is flattening. The next move for it is to curl downward.

On the weekly chart, the pattern mirrors Bitcoin’s repeated fast line rejections. December brought one. January 19 printed a large rejection wick. April 13 saw another. ETH has not closed above the weekly fast line across any of those attempts. MooninPapa said a bigger bounce will eventually come for Ethereum, but not before a lower low.

The total crypto market cap excluding stablecoins, TOTALES, pierced back above long-term support from February and March 2026, but a confirmed TBO open short remains active on the four-hour chart. Resistance sits near 2.3 trillion. MooninPapa is not ruling out a market-wide bounce entirely, but says the weekly structure still reads as a rejection in progress.

Bitcoin dominance moved up 0.27% Thursday. Not large, but MooninPapa flagged it as meaningful. Resistance sits around 61%. Stablecoin dominance has been building a higher-low, higher-high structure since bottoming April 17, which tends to signal money sitting still or exiting.

Japan’s Golden Week Just Became a Macro Problem

DXY dropped close to 0.89% Thursday afternoon. The timing matched a 3.15% drop in USDJPY, the largest single-day yen move in months. Japan’s Ministry of Finance issued comments suggesting intervention is approaching, citing exchange rate stress that has become unsustainable.

Japan enters Golden Week starting the first week of May, a run of national holidays where the Bank of Japan and Ministry of Finance are largely offline. MooninPapa has been flagging this risk for months on X. Intervention means Japan’s Ministry of Finance sells US bonds and US dollars to buy back yen, creating cross-market spillover across global indices and currency pairs.

The S&P futures closed up 1.47% Thursday. The Dow added 1.62%, wicking into resistance. RSI on the Dow did not reach overbought levels during the move. Nvidia dropped 4.63% down to the TBO fast line after two consecutive breakouts.

Gold bounced 1.72% after tagging TBO slow line support. Silver pushed back above 272. Oil remains technically extended after an 8.5% single-day move and a close near recent highs, with MooninPapa holding a small short position targeting a pullback toward the cloud around 99.

For the altcoin watchlist, MooninPapa reviewed DOGE, ZRO, HYPE, SKY, NEAR, RENDER, APT, DCR, AERO, ZBCN, PI, TAO, MORPHO, ALGO, PENGU, ZEC, BAS, APLD, and CRCL among others. DOGE is near an optimal exit zone approaching the cloud top. ALGO holds above the cloud but volume is falling sharply and a break below 11 cents likely opens a path to 8 cents. NEAR confirmed a TBO breakdown and sits below the daily cloud. RENDER holds three open TBO close long signals with a fast line target near 1.78 before the next leg lower.

A few charts showed tradable bounce setups. Most showed lower highs, bearish divergence clusters, or exhaustion readings.

The bigger short-term BTC target remains the top of the daily cloud, which MooninPapa describes as a possible rejection opportunity rather than a breakout. Lower high. Weaker volume. That is what he is watching for heading into May.

Disclaimer: This article is based purely on technical analysis shared by cited sources and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Price analysis reflects the writer’s and source’s independent technical read. Always conduct your own research before making financial decisions.

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