'Cocky' Dems thrilled as AWOL Republican opens door for shock House defeat

Democrats, already confident that they will take control of the House after the midterm elections, are now eyeing the seat of Rep. Tom Kean Jr (R-NJ), who has mysteriously stopped showing up for work.

According to a report from Politico, there was already a belief that Kean’s seat was in play before he went AWOL, and his failure to represent his constituents in Congress over the past several weeks has given Democrats a leg up on stealing the seat.

Kean last voted on March 5 and has not been seen in public since. His office has stated a health issue as the reason for his absence, but has provided no further details. The length and mystery of his absence have fueled national headlines and speculation about whether he will even remain in the race, the report noted.

A Democratic official and consultant, both veteran state political operatives, privately told Politico they believe the political environment has shifted so dramatically in their favor that whoever wins the four-way Democratic primary on June 2 will likely represent the 7th District in Congress.

"Some Democrats are being incredibly cocky about this," said Zoe Heath, Democratic chair of Sussex County — a deeply Republican area that includes 10 towns in Kean's district. "The folks on Twitter, and quite frankly some of the staff on some of the campaigns, are treating this primary like it's the end-all be-all."

Even Republican officials expressed bewilderment at the total information blackout surrounding Kean's condition and whereabouts.

"Nobody knows what's going on. I've never seen a lid on anything tighter in my life," lamented Mary Melfi, the Republican clerk of Hunterdon County, which falls within Kean's district. "Everybody's hopeful that whatever's going on is being addressed and he's going to come back."

Former Rep. Tom Malinowski, the Democrat Kean defeated in 2022, warned that the congressman's pattern of avoiding public engagement has previously worked in his favor politically.

"We have to remember he won two races in part because his team hid him from the public," he told Politico's Matt Freidman. "I tried to make his total absence from public engagements an issue in 2022, and I think a lot of people just didn't believe it, because what I was describing was so unusual for a politician. And now more people are likely to believe there's something a bit more weird going on."

The Democratic primary features four candidates: former Navy helicopter pilot Rebecca Bennett (the establishment favorite and frontrunner), medical doctor Tina Shah, former Small Business Administration official Michael Roth, and businessperson Brian Varela.