Tesla (TSLA) Stock Recovers — But SpaceX’s IPO Has Wall Street Watching

TLDR

• Tesla stock rose 1.4% to $396.65 in premarket trading Monday, recovering after a 6.6% drop on Friday
• SpaceX’s $75 billion IPO is two times oversubscribed — below the four to five times typically seen as a success
• Prediction markets give 43–50% odds of a Tesla-SpaceX merger by end of 2026 or May 2027
• Wall Street has a consensus “Hold” on TSLA with an average price target of $404.37
• Insiders sold 55,218 TSLA shares worth $20.6 million over the last three months

Tesla (TSLA) stock bounced 1.4% to $396.65 in premarket trading Monday, clawing back some ground after a rough Friday that saw the stock drop 6.6%.

Tesla, Inc., TSLA

That Friday selloff came after a strong jobs report raised fears of interest rate hikes. The Nasdaq fell 4.2% that day, dragging most tech names with it. Broadcom’s disappointing earnings didn’t help the mood either.

Monday’s focus quickly shifted to one name: SpaceX.

The rocket company, also led by Elon Musk, is expected to price its IPO on Thursday. Reuters reported $150 billion in demand for the $75 billion offering — making the deal two times oversubscribed.

That number sounds impressive. But by Wall Street standards, it’s lukewarm. IPOs typically need to be two to five times oversubscribed to be considered successful. For a deal of SpaceX’s profile, four or five times would be the benchmark for a strong post-IPO pop.

It’s only Monday, though. Demand can shift quickly.

One question hanging over Tesla is whether investors will rotate out of TSLA to buy SpaceX. That kind of technical selling can weigh on a stock short-term, even if the fundamentals haven’t changed.

Tesla and SpaceX: Closer Than You Think

The two companies have been growing closer. They’ve been collaborating on AI applications and semiconductor manufacturing. And prediction markets are pricing in a real chance of a merger — Kalshi puts it at 50% before May 2027, while Polymarket shows 43% odds before the end of 2026.

Any merger would come after the SpaceX IPO. But those odds are drawing attention.

Tesla opened Monday at $391.00. The stock sits between its 52-week low of $281.85 and its high of $498.83. Its 50-day moving average is $395.33, and the 200-day sits at $416.11. Coming into Monday, TSLA was down 13% year-to-date but up 37% over the past 12 months.

In its most recent quarter, Tesla earned $0.41 EPS, just beating the $0.39 estimate. Revenue came in at $22.39 billion, slightly below the $22.96 billion expected. Year-over-year revenue was up 15.8%.

Institutional and Insider Activity

On the institutional side, Manchester Capital Management raised its Tesla stake by 52.6% in Q4, ending with 18,449 shares valued at around $8.3 million. Several other firms also added to positions over recent quarters.

Insider activity tells a different story. CFO Vaibhav Taneja sold 3,000 shares at $450.00 on May 13th, worth $1.35 million. Director Kathleen Wilson-Thompson sold 26,409 shares at $378.11 on April 30th. Combined, insiders have sold $20.6 million worth of stock in the past three months.

Analyst sentiment is mixed. Deutsche Bank started coverage with a “Buy.” Wedbush kept its “Outperform” with a $600 price target. Jefferies stayed “Neutral.” GLJ Research held its “Sell.” The consensus across 44 analysts is a “Hold” with an average target of $404.37.

Tesla currently carries a market cap of $1.47 trillion and a PE ratio of 358.72.

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