The altcoin market remains under heavy pressure, with CryptoQuant data showing the strongest spot-market selling since tracking began in 2020.
Altcoins excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum have now recorded 15 consecutive months of net selling on spot exchanges, while the cumulative buy-versus-sell volume difference has dropped to its most negative level in more than five years.
Although the metric briefly touched neutral territory earlier this year, raising hopes that demand was returning, selling pressure quickly resumed and pushed it lower.
According to the analyst, this shows a prolonged shortage of demand rather than a short-term correction, with sellers consistently outnumbering buyers across the altcoin market. Despite the weakness, some analysts think investors may be overlooking early signs of a capital rotation.
Macro Risks Continue to Build
However, it’s not just about the crypto cycle that’s causing the problem for altcoins, there’s more to the story.
Billionaire investor Ray Dalio recently warned that the U.S. could be entering a particularly risky period between the 2026 midterm elections and the 2028 presidential election. His concerns are related to rising government spending, the U.S. currently spends roughly $7 trillion annually while generating only about $5 trillion in revenue.
Dalio also pointed to rising debt levels and weakening demand for U.S. government debt, arguing that both economic and geopolitical risks are increasing.
Why Some Analysts Remain Bullish
Despite the bearish data, not everyone agrees that altcoins are heading for another collapse.
Alphractal founder Joao Wedson argues that many altcoins have already entered the depression phase of the market cycle, the point where retail investors lose hope while larger players quietly accumulate positions.
According to Wedson, many projects that suffered steep declines throughout 2025 and early 2026 may not make new all-time lows. He says Bitcoin dominance will likely continue rising, but largely at the expense of weaker altcoins, while capital rotates into stronger projects, stablecoins, and the top 20 cryptocurrencies.
Adding to this, Michaël van de Poppe points to breakout performances from projects such as JTO and UNI as examples that altcoins are not completely dead, they may be slowly returning. While he does not expect an immediate altcoin surge, he sees recent corrections have created some sort of bullish sentiment across the market.
For now, altcoins remain caught between record selling pressure and early signs of selective recovery.
Sentiment Has Flipped Overnight
Market sentiment is also changing.
Santiment reports that crypto discussions earlier this month were dominated by expectations of lower prices, but traders have recently become more bullish due to easing geopolitical tensions, Kevin Warsh’s first Federal Reserve meeting, and improving market conditions.
However, the firm warns that excessive bullishness can sometimes act as a contrarian signal.
