Crypto Market Leverage Cleared as Wintermute Sees Range-Bound Trading Ahead

TLDR

• Wintermute said crypto market leverage has largely been cleared.
• About $600M in long crypto positions were liquidated during the selloff.
• Bitcoin fell near $62,050 as risk-off sentiment hit digital assets.
• Ethereum dropped to about $1,648, while Solana traded near $71.
• Wintermute said weak ETF and Strategy demand may keep crypto range-bound.

Wintermute has said crypto market leverage has largely been cleared after a new round of liquidations, but the firm warned that weaker structural demand from major buyers may keep digital assets range-bound unless flows improve.

In its latest market update, Wintermute said the weekend selloff triggered about $600 million in long liquidations against less than $90 million in short liquidations. The firm described the move as another one-sided unwind, with leverage building during rebounds before being cleared by the next macro or geopolitical shock.

Bitcoin traded near $62,050 after falling 4.58%, while Ethereum dropped 6.43% to about $1,648. Solana also came under pressure, trading near $71 after a 7.41% decline, as risk-off sentiment spread from AI and technology stocks into crypto markets.

Wintermute Says Leverage Has Reset Across Crypto

Wintermute said the latest selloff left crypto positioning cleaner than before, with excessive long exposure largely flushed out. The firm said that gives the market a more defensive setup, although it does not necessarily confirm that a durable bottom has formed.

The firm noted that Bitcoin briefly traded near $67,000 earlier in the week before fading after a hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve decision and renewed Middle East uncertainty. BTC later moved toward the low $60,000 range during the weekend before stabilizing.

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According to Wintermute, crypto reacted faster than equities because digital assets trade through weekends and holidays. U.S. equity markets were closed for Juneteenth when the Iran-related diplomatic setback occurred, while crypto markets repriced immediately.

The firm said crypto effectively absorbed part of the broader risk-asset repricing before traditional markets reopened. That timing made Bitcoin one of the weaker risk assets during the week, excluding oil, as traders reduced exposure after geopolitical optimism faded.

Fed Shift and Middle East Talks Pressure Risk Assets

Wintermute said the Federal Reserve’s latest decision created a more difficult backdrop for digital assets. Rates were held at 3.50% to 3.75%, but the policy message leaned hawkish, with the median 2026 rate projection rising to 3.8% from 3.4% in March.

The firm noted that nine of 18 Fed participants now project at least one rate increase this year, while 17 of 18 see inflation risks tilted to the upside. December rate-hike odds reportedly moved to about 77%, compared with about 24% one month earlier.

That backdrop matters for crypto because the asset class depends heavily on liquidity and capital inflows through ETFs, stablecoins, and digital asset treasury firms. A Fed stance tilted toward tighter policy may reduce the conditions needed for those flows to strengthen.

Geopolitical risk also returned after a planned Iran-related agreement was postponed. Wintermute said optimism around the deal had supported equities and pushed Brent crude lower earlier in the week, but the delay forced markets to reconsider the war premium.

Strategy Buying Eases One Selling Concern

Wintermute said one source of pressure has eased after Strategy continued buying Bitcoin. The firm said concerns tied to Strategy’s earlier 32 BTC sale were reduced after Michael Saylor’s company bought 1,587 BTC for about $100 million between June 8 and June 14 and purchased another 520 Bitcoin for $34.9 million between June 15 and June 21 at an average price of $67,068. This marks their third consecutive week of aggressive buying, lifting total corporate holdings to 847,363 BTC.

Strategy has since continued accumulating Bitcoin at a slower pace as funding costs rise. Wintermute said this reduces the forced-seller concern that had weighed on sentiment, although it does not solve the broader issue of weaker marginal demand.

The firm said the two largest structural demand sources, Bitcoin ETFs and Strategy, are contributing less incremental buying than in earlier phases. Until those flows improve, Wintermute said the best-case market setup may be range-bound trading rather than a new sustained uptrend.

Wintermute added that a softer U.S. PCE inflation report or progress in Qatar-led Middle East talks could trigger a rebound. However, it said such a move would likely be a tactical bounce unless supported by stronger flows and renewed demand from major buyers.

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