Galaxy Research Cuts CLARITY Act Passage Odds As Senate Calendar Tightens Ahead Of Recess

Galaxy Research has lowered the estimated probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 from 60% to 50%, citing mounting scheduling challenges in the U.S. Senate rather than changes to the bill itself. The assessment was outlined by Head of Research Alex Thorn in a post on X.

The CLARITY Act has remained on the Senate Legislative Calendar since June 1 after advancing through the Senate Banking Committee in a 15-9 vote on May 14. However, no date has been set for Senate floor consideration, and no motion to proceed has been scheduled.

Negotiations to reconcile legislative language between the Senate Banking and Agriculture committees are continuing at the staff level, with indications of constructive discussions. Nevertheless, lawmakers have not announced a unified bill or released consolidated legislative text. Key policy issues also remain unresolved, including ethics provisions and amendments related to conflict-of-interest standards. Concerns over developer protections under the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act (BRCA) and illicit finance provisions also continue to be debated.

Galaxy Research said competition for Senate floor time has intensified following President Donald Trump’s statement that he would not sign a bipartisan housing bill unless Congress first passes the SAVE Act, an election bill requiring proof of citizenship for voter registration. The move adds another contentious issue to an already crowded legislative agenda.

Other high-priority items awaiting Senate action include legislation to address the lapse of Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) and the annual National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), both of which are expected to receive priority before the scheduled congressional recess at the end of July.

Legislative Timeline Faces Mounting Pressure

According to Galaxy Research, the narrowing legislative calendar is now the primary obstacle facing the CLARITY Act. The bill still requires agreement on a unified committee text, Senate floor debate, consideration of amendments, and subsequent action by the House of Representatives. The firm believes Senate leadership would need to schedule floor consideration by early July to preserve a realistic path toward passage before the August recess.

Despite lowering its forecast, Galaxy Research said the legislation still has a meaningful chance of becoming law in 2026. The firm noted that committee approval, continued behind-the-scenes negotiations, and the bill’s placement on the legislative calendar remain positive indicators. However, it warned that without a scheduled Senate vote, unresolved policy issues and increasing competition for floor time could further reduce the likelihood of passage.

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