Bitcoin Miners Refuse to Sell While Active Holders Quietly Bleed 20%

Bitcoin miners hold the MPI below zero at -0.94 while active holders nurse a 20% average loss, and one CryptoQuant resistance line keeps capping every bounce.

The number has barely moved in weeks. Minus 0.94, roughly, which is where the Miners’ Position Index has parked itself while Bitcoin churns near $63,000. CryptoQuant carried the reading in a QuickTake this weekend.

An MPI under zero means Bitcoin miners are moving less BTC to exchanges than their one-year average. They are not dumping. Whether that reads as conviction or plain exhaustion is another question.

Rallies in the index this year kept fading before anything stuck.

The Selling That Never Showed Up

Early 2026 looked different. The index printed elevated readings in short bursts back then, sharp ones, before sliding into the narrower band it trades in now. No sustained push into positive territory has landed since.

Negative prints have outnumbered positive ones since the second quarter, per the data. That pattern held again this week. Miner behavior shows no structural shift, the QuickTake noted, and left it there.

Exchange flows elsewhere got louder. Bitcoin exchange inflows spiked to nearly 49,000 BTC in one late June session, an extreme touched only a handful of times this year, with average deposit sizes doubling.

Source: CryptoQuant, Bitcoin Miners’ Position Index

The Price Active Holders Actually Paid

A separate CryptoQuant post ignored the miners entirely. It focused on the True Market Mean, the average cost basis of coins that still move. Wallets frozen since Bitcoin’s early days get stripped out, since a chunk of those coins are simply lost. The TMM cuts through that noise.

That average sits near $76,700 right now. It has been acting as resistance.

According to Joao Wedson on X, whose chart accompanies the analysis, May made the mechanism visible. Investors hovering near breakeven chose to leave the market flat rather than hold through more downside. The ceiling held.

Source: CryptoQuant, chart by Joao Wedson

A 20% Hole That Could Get Deeper

The AVIV ratio pairs with the TMM and tracks how far underwater this active cohort sits. It hovers around 0.8, a devaluation zone. In plain terms, the average active investor is nursing a loss of about a fifth.

Past bear markets went further. The ratio touched 0.5 to 0.6 in those cycles, drawdowns closer to 40% and worse for some. Wedson doubts this cycle needs that depth, citing the adoption BTC has pulled in, though he concedes nothing so far contradicts its old cyclicality. Institutions arrived. ETFs poured billions in. Bitcoin, he wrote, still dictates its own rules.

Sell pressure readings dropped into a rare zone this month too, one flagged in the Sell-Side Risk Ratio data, a level that preceded strong expansions in 2019, 2020 and 2023. Humility, more or less, was Wedson’s closing note. The miners’ index ended the week at minus 0.94.

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