Sudáfrica. En ese rincón del mundo se reunieron el fin de semana los representantes de las 20 economías más grandes del planeta —y algunos países invitados— en la primera cumbre del G20 celebrada en suelo africano. Estados Unidos brilló por su ausencia. México envió al secretario de Hacienda, Édgar Amador, una presencia más protocolaria que sustantiva, útil únicamente para evitar la silla vacía.Sudáfrica. En ese rincón del mundo se reunieron el fin de semana los representantes de las 20 economías más grandes del planeta —y algunos países invitados— en la primera cumbre del G20 celebrada en suelo africano. Estados Unidos brilló por su ausencia. México envió al secretario de Hacienda, Édgar Amador, una presencia más protocolaria que sustantiva, útil únicamente para evitar la silla vacía.

Mirar a Canadá

2025/11/27 12:15

Sudáfrica. En ese rincón del mundo se reunieron el fin de semana los representantes de las 20 economías más grandes del planeta —y algunos países invitados— en la primera cumbre del G20 celebrada en suelo africano. Estados Unidos brilló por su ausencia. México envió al secretario de Hacienda, Édgar Amador, una presencia más protocolaria que sustantiva, útil únicamente para evitar la silla vacía.

El encuentro dejó poco para el recuerdo. Una nota del Financial Times comparó al G20 con un simple “chat grupal”. La crítica es válida e incómoda porque captura parte de la realidad. La ausencia de figuras clave, de Xi Jinping a Donald Trump, debilitó la arquitectura política del foro. En un mundo repleto de desconfianza, la eficacia del multilateralismo es cada vez más limitada. Y es cierto que instituciones como el G20 no han logrado contener la marea proteccionista global.

Sin embargo, aun en su versión más deslucida, estos espacios permiten leer el clima internacional. Destaco la intervención del primer ministro canadiense, Mark Carney, quien advirtió que el centro de gravedad económico se desplaza para alejarse de Estados Unidos. En ese contexto, subrayó un objetivo que su gobierno repite constantemente: diversificar. Canadá quiere tejer nuevas relaciones con China, India, los Emiratos Árabes Unidos, entre otros. Un movimiento comprensible, pero que podría tensar su relación con un Trump cada vez más receloso de Ottawa.

Semanas antes, en la Cumbre de APEC en Perú (otro evento al que México tampoco asistió a nivel presidencial), Carney se reunió con Xi Jinping. Fue el primer contacto de ese nivel desde 2017. Lejos de anunciar un romance geopolítico, el gesto sugiere que diversificar no es un acto de fe, sino un ejercicio de pragmatismo y supervivencia. Que Estados Unidos sea un socio volátil no convierte a China en uno más confiable, pero obliga a explorar rutas alternativas.

En México se habla de diversificación desde hace décadas. Empero, la estructura exportadora permanece extraordinariamente concentrada: más del 80% de las exportaciones van a Estados Unidos. Con el tiempo, esta dependencia se volvió estructural, casi un rasgo identitario del modelo económico. Todos reconocemos los riesgos de depender de un solo centro de poder, pero nadie ha encontrado cómo romper esa inercia, y tampoco existe una alternativa inmediata que iguale la escala que ofrece el mercado estadounidense.

Con todo, lo que resulta más llamativo de la postura canadiense no es su claridad, sino lo que podría anticipar para 2026. Mientras México declara como prioridad absoluta la renovación del T-MEC, en Canadá esa convicción luce menos firme. Una colega canadiense insiste que una discusión frecuente en Ottawa es la posibilidad de volver a una arquitectura bilateral. Un acuerdo entre Estados Unidos y Canadá y otro entre Estados Unidos y México.

Desde mi perspectiva, ese escenario es profundamente riesgoso. Significaría fracturar la plataforma de integración que ha definido a Norteamérica durante tres décadas. Implicaría, también, lidiar con regulaciones divergentes en sectores como acero, aluminio o reglas de origen para el sector automotriz. La inversión no desaparecería, pero mutaría y probablemente estaría más concentrada en Estados Unidos. Para México y Canadá, eso se traduciría en ciclos de inversión más lentos y menor capacidad de atraer proyectos estratégicos. No es un camino deseable para nadie, y menos para México.

Por eso, más allá de la foto amable entre Carney y Sheinbaum hace unos meses, conviene mirar hacia Canadá con atención renovada. El partido del T-MEC apenas empieza, y México no sólo debe observar cada movimiento de Washington, también atender cuidadosamente las señales que lleguen desde Ottawa, incluidas aquellas que insinúe entre líneas.

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