Why Energy Transition Discourse Needs A Dose Of Realism

There is growing, even if reluctant, consensus among many experts that the world’s ongoing energy transition, its associated costs, plans, and targets could all do with a heavy dose of realism.

An uncertain macroeconomic climate and a noticeable political blowback against green initiatives in several countries has also knocked the transition trajectory. While BloombergNEF projects the required energy transition investment level to be $5.6 trillion each year from 2025 to 2030, finance is in fact returning unabated to traditional energy if not totally retreating from green finance.

And the spectacular collapse of the Net Zero Banking Alliance in October marked another low point for those seeking to finance the shift from fossil to green fuels. The NZBA counted nearly 150 global banks among its ranks since its founding in 2021.

However, mass departures of banks earlier this year dwindled its relevance and ultimately led to its demise. Major energy companies have also either pulled back or curtailed their green investments, and are placing a renewed overt emphasis on boosting hydrocarbon exploration and revenue.

The topic of tackling the transition took center-stage at the recently concluded Duke of Edinburgh Future Energy Conference in London, U.K., organized by The Worshipful Company of Fuellers, one of the historic livery companies of the City of London, now associated with the whole energy sector.

Interspersed with discussions on renewable energy, hydrogen, geothermal and emerging climate technology solutions, concerns were expressed at the event both about the speed as well as costs and actual efficacy of the transition solutions being proposed.

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Speaking at the event, Lucian “Lou” Pugliaresi, President of the Energy Policy Research Foundation, a Washington DC-based think-tank, said: “Admittedly, we live in an age where electrification is the driver. But if you look at electricity generation itself – the secondary source for which all fuels compete – the main sources of renewables remain intermittent, while demand is still largely predicated on hydrocarbons.”

“If someone asked me to point to an example of cost effective decarbonization in the energy transition era, I’d quite frankly point to the power sector’s switch from coal to natural gas, which has done more to lower the world’s carbon footprint than any renewable energy solution in the last decade.”

Pugliaresi also noted that the technology sector’s growing demand for more power is resulting in a rise in usage of all fuels. “It’s world in which the ‘tech bros’ need the power and are fuel medium agnostic. Based on the current direction of travel, I see a rise in natural gas consumption over the medium-term, and a rising role for nuclear over the long-term.”

Ashutosh Shastri, Founder of EnerStrat Consulting and Master Fueller (2025-26) of The Worshipful Company of Fuellers, said: “The energy transition doesn’t need to be doctrine or a blind race to one particular fuel medium or the other.

“It needs to be about making the right decisions in a timely manner, having stakeholders in the entire energy spectrum talking and collaborating with each other, and ultimately having more data driven conversations from natural gas to nuclear, and all else in between.”

Also speaking at the event, Christof Rühl, international economist and senior research scholar at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University, New York, said the world needed to cut through the hype.

“In pure transition terms, what we have achieved in the last 35 years is nothing to write home about, as energy demand is still largely predicated oil and gas, and coal remains in use for power generation.”

Referring to the energy price spikes in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine War of 2022, and the subsequent cooling and normalization, Rühl said fossil fuels and not renewables that had in fact ultimately “saved the day” when the world faced a price shock.

“A geopolitically driven price spike was also largely short-lived because the U.S. switched from being a net importer to a net exporter of energy. The development has completely turned the market on its head and kept a lid on oil prices that much of the global economy pays heed to.”

He also told the Fuellers’ event that the usage of oil will continue to play a significant role in the global energy mix, and hydrocarbon extraction will be part and parcel of the energy resource landscape for decades to come.

“Alongside investment in the energy transition, the world will see an inevitable race to the bottom for hydrocarbon extraction. It’s coming up and Middle Eastern players are going to win that race and keep oil in frame.”