Tesla (TSLA) Stock: What SpaceX’s IPO Means for Shareholders

TLDR

• SpaceX is considering going public in 2026 with an IPO that could raise $25 billion to $30 billion
• The private space company is currently worth $400 billion and dominates the commercial launch industry
• Analysts predict Tesla could purchase a stake in SpaceX during the public offering process
• EchoStar stock climbed 17.2% over two days following IPO reports due to its SpaceX investment
• Companies with sky-high IPO valuations historically underperform, with most losing half their value within three years

Elon Musk’s SpaceX might finally go public. Reports say the space company is looking at a 2026 IPO.

The offering could raise between $25 billion and $30 billion. SpaceX might be valued at more than $1 trillion.

Tesla, Inc., TSLA

Right now SpaceX is worth about $400 billion as a private company. That makes it the biggest aerospace business in the world.

The company dominates commercial space launches. SpaceX handles more than half of all orbital launches worldwide.

Starlink is another big piece of the business. The satellite internet service now has over 8 million subscribers.

Some analysts think SpaceX could hit a $1.5 trillion valuation at IPO. Others believe trading could push it past $2 trillion.

Musk has said SpaceX doesn’t urgently need money. The company is already generating positive cash flow.

Still, an IPO would give regular investors their first chance to own SpaceX shares.

Tesla May Join SpaceX Offering

Dan Ives from Wedbush Securities made an interesting call. He expects Tesla to buy into SpaceX when the IPO happens.

Ives covers Tesla with a Buy rating. He has a $600 price target on the stock.

The analyst thinks Tesla’s artificial intelligence projects will drive growth. That includes robotaxis and humanoid robots.

Tesla shareholders voted on something similar recently. They considered allowing Tesla to invest in xAI, Musk’s AI startup.

That vote was nonbinding. A large number of shareholders didn’t vote at all.

Investing in SpaceX could be the first step. Some think Musk might eventually combine his various companies.

He currently runs Tesla, SpaceX, xAI, X, and The Boring Company. Nothing concrete has been announced about merging them.

Space Stocks Rally On News

EchoStar holds a big position in SpaceX. The satellite operator owns roughly $11 billion worth of SpaceX stock.

EchoStar shares jumped 6% Tuesday when the IPO news broke. They rose another 11.2% Wednesday to $103.98.

The S&P 500 only gained 0.7% that day. The Dow Jones added 1.1%.

Other publicly traded space companies also moved higher. Rocket Lab USA climbed 7.7% on Wednesday.

Firefly Aerospace shares increased 9.5%. Even Intuitive Machines ticked up 1.5%.

Investment firms are paying attention. GAMCO Investors has SpaceX exposure through its EchoStar stake.

Christopher Marangi from GAMCO said the firm would be interested in space companies going public. But he called any SpaceX purchase too speculative to predict right now.

Valuation Concerns Linger

Cathie Wood from ARK Invest has aggressive projections. She thinks SpaceX will be worth $2.5 trillion by 2030.

ARK expects SpaceX to generate nearly $200 billion in sales by then. Almost all of that would come from Starlink and Starshield.

These are SpaceX’s satellite communication platforms. Wood is known for making bullish calls.

She predicts Tesla stock will hit $2,600 per share by 2029. Tesla currently trades around $446.

Shay Boloor from Futurum Equities Research expects massive retail demand. He thinks the SpaceX IPO could be the wildest in market history.

But the numbers tell a different story about high-value IPOs. Jay Ritter from the University of Florida researched decades of data.

Between 1980 and 2023, he found 45 companies that went public with huge valuations. These firms had prices over 40 times their annual sales.

Only seven of those 45 companies traded higher three years later. The average stock lost about 50% of its value.

These high-flyers also trailed the broader market by 63% on average. Tesla went public in 2010 at a reasonable valuation and became an outlier success story.

Dan Hanson from Neuberger Berman sees it differently. His Quality Equity Fund holds 5% in private SpaceX shares.

He called SpaceX rare because it has both working products and future potential. The launch business makes money now while Mars missions generate excitement.

The earliest possible IPO date is June 2026. SpaceX has not confirmed or denied the reports.

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