Trading Moment: With Japan's interest rate hike now a reality, Bitcoin faces a crucial test at $81,000, while Ethereum's rebound falters.

Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

Despite the unexpected drop in the US November CPI year-on-year rate to 2.7% and the core CPI to 2.6%, a new low since 2021, which initially ignited market expectations for accelerated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the reliability of the report was widely questioned due to data collection disruptions caused by the government shutdown. The market oscillated amidst complex signals. On the one hand, White House officials believed the Fed had "significant room for rate cuts"; on the other hand, the Bank of Japan raised its benchmark interest rate to 0.75%, a 30-year high, continuing to tighten global liquidity. On the regulatory front, the CLARITY Act, aimed at clarifying rules for the crypto market, is expected to enter the Senate for consideration in January, bringing positive expectations to the industry. However, financial markets are facing the largest quarterly derivatives settlement in history, with approximately $7.1 trillion in risk exposure potentially exacerbating volatility. Against this backdrop, Wall Street analysts are cautious about the end of 2025, but institutions such as Goldman Sachs remain optimistic about the long-term performance of assets such as gold, believing that gold may climb to $4,900 in 2026. Although the crypto market has the conditions for a bull market, it has performed weakly and may have structural problems, making the overall outlook uncertain.

The Bitcoin market is currently in a fragile consolidation phase, with prices oscillating between support around $81,000 and selling pressure around $93,000. Glassnode data shows that high supply pressure, increased losses, and weakening demand are limiting upside potential, indicating that a drop below $81,300 could trigger further selling. The market faces multiple pressures: firstly, long-term holders are experiencing the most intense sell-off in over five years, as confirmed by analyst James Check; secondly, the upcoming option expirations on December 19th and 26th (with a notional value of $23.8 billion) are also weighing on prices, with the "biggest pain point" on December 26th at $100,000. Analysts hold significantly differing opinions. Killa, using the USDT.D chart, suggests the bear market may continue, targeting $74,000 and $68,000. However, Mayne believes the current trend is similar to the April bottom, potentially testing $80,000 in the short term. AlphaBTC anticipates a "Santa Claus rally" to around $100,000. Astronomer has already begun building long positions with a target of $112,000. Regarding the long-term trend in 2026, analyst "Yuanshan Insight" predicts the most likely scenario is that BTC will consolidate and bottom out in the $70,000 to $100,000 range, with a 60% probability, believing that this year will be a period of accumulation rather than pursuing quick profits.

Ethereum's performance was also under pressure, with the key $2,800 support level being tested after failing to break through the downtrend line. Analyst Ted pointed out that if this level holds, a rebound to $3,000 is possible; if it falls, it could further decline to $2,500. Daan Crypto Trades even believes that a break below $2,800 would open the way to the next major support zone of $2,100. However, in stark contrast to the market's pessimistic sentiment, institutions are still actively accumulating. Data shows that an address suspected to be from Bitmine has bought at least $229 million worth of ETH this week.

2. Key Data (as of 13:00 HKT on December 19)

(Data source: GMGN, CoinAnk, Upbit, SoSoValue, CoinMarketCap)

• Bitcoin: $87,058 (down 7.1% year-to-date), daily spot trading volume $62.57 billion.

• Ethereum: $2,920 (-12.33% year-to-date), daily spot trading volume $35.59 billion.

• Fear of Greed Index: 16 (Extreme Fear)

• Average GAS: BTC: 1.2 sat/vB, ETH: 0.04 Gwei

• Market share: BTC 58.5%, ETH 12.4%

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: XRP, BTC, ETH, SOL, DOGE

• 24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 49.93% / 50.07%

• Sector Performance: The crypto market continued its decline, with the AI sector falling over 5% and the NFT sector dropping 2.2%.

• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 135,667 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $510 million. This included $183 million in BTC liquidations, $126 million in ETH liquidations, and $31.79 million in SOL liquidations.

3. ETF Flows (as of December 18)

• Bitcoin ETFs: -$161 million, with only BlackRock IBIT seeing net inflows.

• Ethereum ETF: -$96.6166 million, marking the sixth consecutive day of net outflows.

• Solana ETF: +$13.16 million

• XRP ETF: +$30.41 million

4. Today's Outlook

• Binance Alpha will launch zkPass (ZKP) on December 19th.

• Binance will remove several spot trading pairs, including AI/FDUSD and BICO/BTC, on December 19th.

• The LayerZero community will launch its third fee switch vote on December 20th.

• Binance Alpha will list TradeTide (TTD) on December 20th.

• LayerZero (ZRO) will unlock approximately 25.71 million tokens at 7 PM Beijing time on December 20th, representing 6.79% of the circulating supply, with a value of approximately $38.6 million.

• Lista DAO (LISTA) will unlock approximately 33.44 million tokens at 5 PM Beijing time on December 20th, representing 6.85% of the circulating supply, with a value of approximately $5.5 million.

The top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization with the largest gains today are: Bitcoin Cash up 8.7%, LEO Token up 5.6%, Story up 5.1%, World Liberty Financial up 4.4%, and Canton Network up 4%.

5. Hot News

• Arthur Hayes: Maelstrom is aggressively buying up high-quality altcoins.

• Lido's new proposal suggests allocating $60 million by 2026 to implement the GOOSE-3 program.

• The "1011 Insider Whale" has a total unrealized loss of $77.22 million on its $695 million long positions.

• CF Benchmarks considers Bitcoin a core asset in its portfolio and predicts its price will reach $1.4 million by 2035.

• CZ's counterparty, a whale, currently holds a $237 million long position with a floating loss of $40.3 million, and its ETH long position is once again on the verge of liquidation.

• Huang Licheng closed his short-term long positions in BTC, ZEC, and HYPE after making a profit, but his ETH long positions resulted in a loss of $359,000.

• The US November unadjusted CPI rose 2.7% year-on-year, while the core CPI rose 2.6% year-on-year.

• Trump Media Technology Group's pre-market gains widened to 37.5%.

• Taiwan's Ministry of Justice announced the seizure of 210.45 Bitcoins.

• JPMorgan Chase has deployed JPM Coin on the Base public chain, allowing transfers only between whitelisted users.

• Uniswap has submitted a UNIFICation proposal, planning to destroy 100 million UNI tokens.