Crypto market observation for the week (06.30~07.06): Tariff conflict is coming to an end, BTC fluctuates at a high level and is waiting to break through

Author: 0xBrooker

This week, BTC opened at $108,386.44 and closed at $109,217.98, up 0.77%. The highest was $110,590 and the lowest was $105,119.70, with an amplitude of 5.05%. Trading volume continued to shrink.

The past week was relatively dull and boring. Macro events remained the decisive factor in BTC price movements, but neither employment data, the Big, Beautiful Act nor the reciprocal tariff war had any changes beyond market expectations.

An ancient whale holding more than 80,000 and silent for more than 14 years began to move assets this week, creating a certain psychological pressure on the market. As the price of BTC approaches a new all-time high again, the trend of long-term reduction may reappear.

Some positive changes are also taking place. After being silent for more than a month, the activity of funds in the market has begun to increase. This increase may resonate with off-market funds and push BTC to start the fourth wave of this bull market.

Policy, macro-finance and economic data

This week, three major macro events intertwined to influence the crypto market.

One is that the US employment data exceeded expectations. The data released on July 3 showed that the US unemployment rate in June was 4.1%, which was not only significantly lower than the expected 4.3%, but also lower than the previous value of 4.2%. Looking deeper into the data, it can be found that although private employment has decreased, state government jobs have increased significantly. The number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the week of June 28 was announced to be 233,000, which was also lower than the expected 240,000 and the previous value. On the one hand, the latest employment data eliminated the market's concerns about the US economic recession, and on the other hand, it also reduced the probability of a rate cut in July to 4.7%. In the end, the impact on the market was relatively neutral.

The second is that the US President officially signed the "Big and Beautiful Act" on July 4, which is the biggest political achievement of his term so far. The large-scale tax cuts, substantial increase in government budget and spending cuts included in the bill may further reduce the credit of the US dollar, increase debt and reduce government revenue in the long run, but in the short and medium term, it will undoubtedly have a significant stimulating effect on the economy. Therefore, although there is a lot of controversy in public opinion, the financial market has a positive interpretation of it as a whole, which directly pushed the S&P 500 index to continue to hit a record high this week.

The third is that the "reciprocal tariff war" has entered the third stage. On July 5, Trump announced that he had signed a "tariff letter" to 12 countries, which contained a "one-price" country tax rate, and the final tax rate range was raised to 10%-70%. The letter will be mailed on July 7. The tax rate is likely to be implemented on August 1, bringing new uncertainties to global trade, inflation and market sentiment. Because the highest range exceeded the expected 50%, the market reacted negatively to this, but because the pricing was relatively sufficient, the reaction was small.

In our observation framework, the current US economy is showing the characteristics of a soft landing or no landing. The interest rate cut will start in September. The "Big and American Act" will have a positive impact on the US stock market in the short and medium term. The impact of equal tariffs is about to pass, so the US stock market has hit a new record high. In the short and medium term, under the expectation of interest rate cuts, it may maintain an upward trend. However, the current valuation of US stocks is not low, and we need to pay close attention to changes in corporate profitability and the impact of tariffs on economic and employment data.

Crypto Market

Compared with the past few weeks, the BTC market is relatively flat this week due to the continuity of macro market information, but changes are also brewing internally.

On July 2, BTC once again verified the "first rising trend line of the bull market", but it ran around $108,000 for most of the week and made its third impact on the historical high of $110,000 in 8 months.

The BTC retail market is clearly divided, the enthusiasm for on-site fund trading has faded, and the on-chain activity and new addresses are mediocre. However, the BTC Spot ETF market is trading vigorously and has recorded continuous inflows of funds.

As of now, the BTC price and trend are completely controlled by the BTC Spot ETF channel funds, and the correlation between BTC trend and Nasdaq has also increased to 0.94.

Some variables may be happening. The on-site lending rate fell to a low level and then began to rebound. The 30-day average premium rate of the contract market fell to a low level and then began to rebound. Of course, both need to be observed for their sustainability. In the June monthly report, we judged that the market will take another step in the third quarter. If the BTC Spot ETF channel funds continue to flow in and the on-site funds begin to resonate with long positions, then the fourth wave of increases may soon be realized.

Funds In and Out

After the big rebound in April and May, capital inflows diverged, with stablecoin channel funds beginning to weaken, while BTC Spot ETF channel funds were relatively strong and stable.

This week, the BTC Spot ETF channel saw inflows of $790 million, which was significantly weaker than last week, but still maintained at a high level.

 Crypto market capital inflow statistics (weekly)

Stablecoin channels saw inflows of $1.574 billion, close to last week.

Selling pressure and selling

As the price challenges $110,000 again, long holders seem to be starting to sell off their holdings again.

Judging from the scale of transfers to exchanges, the combined selling scale of long and short hands is still shrinking this week, which provides strong support for the upward trend of BTC prices.

But this week, an ancient wallet with more than 80,000 BTC experienced an abnormal movement. The significant movement of this wallet, which had been silent for 14 years, caused the on-chain cash value to rise sharply.

 On-chain value realization statistics

Judging from the current trend, once BTC breaks through $110,000 and starts the fourth wave of rise, the selling of long-term and old BTC should start again. These selling will jointly discover the new price of BTC with the buying power and determine its height.

Cycle Indicators

According to eMerge Engine, the EMC BTC Cycle Metrics indicator is 0.625 and is in an upward period.