COIN Drops 44% as Coinbase Search Interest Hits 5-Year Low

Coinbase Global stock traded near $247.26 at the time of writing, rising 2.69% on the day but remaining far below its prior peak. Despite the modest daily gain, COIN has dropped roughly 44% from its all-time high, reflecting a prolonged period of weak momentum. 

At the same time, online interest in Coinbase and crypto-related topics has fallen to levels not seen in five years. Why does attention matter so much for a platform built on trading activity?

Source: Google Trends

Crypto Engagement Slips Across Platforms

Search and social data show that interest in crypto has declined steadily since October, reaching its lowest point since early 2021. The drop spans YouTube, social media platforms, and Google search trends. Analysts tracking engagement point to muted price action and range-bound markets as key drivers. 

With Bitcoin and major tokens struggling to attract momentum, content engagement has faded alongside volatility. As excitement wanes, fewer traders enter the market, which directly affects exchange activity.

Coinbase Premium Signals Institutional Retreat

Market indicators also reflect changing behavior among U.S.-based investors. The Coinbase Premium, which measures price differences between Coinbase and offshore exchanges, has flipped sharply negative in recent weeks. 

Source: X

This shift suggests reduced demand from American institutions that previously supported prices during rallies. Historically, sustained negative premiums have coincided with weaker market conditions. As the premium deteriorated, confidence around near-term upside faded, reinforcing caution around COIN shares.

Base Layer-2 Activity Continues to Decline

Operational data from Coinbase’s Base layer-2 network highlights further challenges. DeFi Llama data shows monthly decentralized exchange volume on Base falling to about $26 billion in December, down from $53 billion in October. The network has recorded three consecutive months of declining volume, even as competitors such as Solana and Polygon reported stronger activity. Reduced trading flow limits fee generation and weakens the broader ecosystem tied to Coinbase’s growth strategy.

Transactions, Fees, and Users Drop Sharply

Nansen metrics paint a similar picture. Base transactions dropped 24% over the last 30 days to roughly 312 million. Over the same period, network fees fell 47% to $2.7 million, while active addresses declined 21% to 6.9 million. 

In contrast, Polygon recorded a 20% rise in addresses and a sharp increase in fees. These diverging trends highlight how user attention has shifted away from Base during the recent market slowdown.

Earnings Loom as Revenue Pressure Builds

Coinbase now faces investor scrutiny ahead of its earnings report scheduled for February 25. Consensus estimates point to a 15% year-over-year revenue decline for the last quarter, alongside a sharp drop in earnings per share to $1.18 from $4.68.

Lower trading volumes across spot and derivatives markets likely weighed on performance. As engagement weakens, revenue sensitivity increases for exchanges that rely on transaction fees.

Strategic Bets Aim to Offset Weak Trading

Despite current headwinds, Coinbase continues to expand beyond traditional trading. The company has entered prediction markets and increased focus on tokenized stocks. CEO Brian Armstrong has highlighted benefits such as fractional ownership, global access, perpetual futures, and real-time settlement. 

These initiatives aim to diversify revenue streams during periods of low trading interest. Still, with search interest at a five-year low, attention remains fixed on whether engagement returns as market conditions evolve.