Forget silver, Copper’s AI-fueled explosion exposes a “higher for longer” trap that most crypto traders are ignoring

Copper hit a new record high this week as crypto traders focused on the surge in silver and gold. However, copper’s rise could actually shift the rate path that underpins the market’s liquidity narrative.

The all-time high for copper is now around $6.06 per pound as of Wednesday, Jan. 14.

Futures activity has tracked the price move in ways that complicate the idea of a one-session burst.

An COMEX update posted Jan. 15, 2026, reported estimated volume of 74,332 contracts, down from 83,265.

Open interest rose to 269,825, up 3,588.

Crypto markets do not price copper directly, yet copper’s proximity to records can feed a cross-asset “everything up” framing.

Gold and silver have made similar moves, but most of the attention is still parked on the usual “safe-haven” trade.

Copper is the one flying under the radar, and that matters because it’s less about fear and more about real-world demand, where any sign of persistent price pressure can feed straight into rate expectations and, by extension, crypto liquidity.

Copper’s climb could reprice inflation expectations, and crypto liquidity

That framing sharpens the debate around how persistent inflation will be, where real rates are headed, and how soon the Fed can ease policy, all factors that also shape the outlook for Bitcoin (BTC).

That debate has stayed unresolved in the Fed’s own messaging.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said inflation could be around 2.5% by the end of 2026, then added, “The question is, is it going to be two and a half percent by the end of the year…? I don’t know”.

Rates expectations for 2026 have also become less settled in market commentary, which matters for bitcoin and other liquid tokens that can trade as long-duration risk when real yields move.

Rate cuts in 2026 looked like a foregone conclusion earlier, while adding that J.P. Morgan Chief Economist Michael Feroli said he does not expect the Fed to make any cuts this year.

Copper’s AI-fueled rally runs into Fed uncertainty

Copper’s rally intersects with a corporate procurement story tied to AI infrastructure buildouts.

The Wall Street Journal reported Amazon signed a two-year agreement with Rio Tinto related to the Nuton/Johnson Camp copper project.

The report placed the deal in the context of record copper prices, supply concerns, and data center demand.

For crypto, the near-term translation is less about copper as a hedge and more about how a commodity-led inflation story can alter the expected path of financial conditions.

If copper strength is read as demand holding up while supply stays constrained, traders can bring forward “higher for longer” scenarios, which can pressure leverage and weaken the bid for duration-sensitive risk.

That can happen even if spot flows and protocol-specific catalysts complicate the relationship across large-cap tokens such as Ethereum (ETH).

If disinflation resumes into late 2026, Kashkari’s own uncertainty leaves room for easing expectations to re-enter prices.

That can relax real-rate pressure that has been a recurring headwind for crypto.

COMEX signals reveal shifting cross-asset positioning and risk appetite

The COMEX snapshot also carries a narrower lesson for cross-asset positioning.

Open interest rising as volume fell, can align with traders keeping exposure on rather than cycling through one-day momentum.

Open interest alone, however, cannot separate new longs from new shorts without additional positioning data.

For now, copper’s record-high zone is acting as a live test of whether “real economy” tightness or a softer inflation track dominates the 2026 rates narrative.

Traders looking for confirmation will be forced back to the same scoreboard across assets: copper’s level relative to its January peak on Trading Economics and the Fed’s tolerance for inflation outcomes that may still land above target by year-end.