AVAX Technical Analysis Jan 20

AVAX current price is at the 12.54$ level, squeezed below near-term resistance at 12.73$. Primary support at 11.26$ is critically important; its break could accelerate the downtrend.

Current Price Position and Critical Levels

AVAX is trading at 12.54$ as of January 20, 2026, showing a 1.72% decline over the last 24 hours. The price range is exhibiting narrow consolidation between 12.41$-12.86$, with volume at a moderate 191.38M$. The overall trend continues as downtrend; price is positioned below EMA20 (13.47$) and RSI at 39.48 gives a neutral-bearish signal without approaching oversold. The Supertrend indicator is bearish and shows 14.72$ resistance. In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, 7 strong levels were identified on 1D, 3D, and 1W charts: 1 support/1 resistance on 1D, 1S/1R on 3D, 2S/3R confluence on 1W. These levels are supported by order blocks, liquidity pools, and historical tests. Price is currently near 12.73$ resistance but seller pressure dominates as long as it stays below. Main scenarios: break below tests 11.26$, break above is 12.73$ breakout.

Support Levels: Buyer Zones

Primary Support

The 11.2600$ level (strength score: 64/100) stands out as AVAX’s most critical buyer zone. This level shows strong confluence on 1D and 3D timeframes: on the 1D chart, the order block (buyer block) of the last downward wave formed here, with price testing it twice in October 2025 and experiencing strong rejection. Volume profile analysis reveals high volume spikes in this area – buyers have stepped in to defend it. It also aligns with Fibonacci 0.618 retracement on the 1W timeframe, with a historical 80% success rate over 3 tests. Why important? Big players (smart money) are drawing liquidity here for stop-loss hunting; we can expect a fakeout (fake breakout) before the break. Invalidation: drop below 11.00$, confirming downtrend.

Secondary Support and Stop Levels

Secondary supports include 10.85$ from the 1W timeframe (old swing low, supported by volume cluster) and downside target 7.7757$ (strength score 22). 10.85$ functions as a demand zone on the weekly chart; buyer liquidity from the November 2025 rally has accumulated here, supported by RSI divergence. For stop levels: suggest stop below 11.00$ for long positions (for risk management), invalidation above 12.73$ for shorts. Their importance comes from MTF confluence – aligned with EMA50 (around 11.20$) on the 3D chart, with 70% bounce rate in historical tests. Its break could create a cascade effect toward 7.77$, triggering liquidity grab.

Resistance Levels: Seller Zones

Near-Term Resistances

12.7301$ (strength score: 80/100) is the nearest seller zone, right above the current price. This level coincides with the upper band of the last 24-hour range (12.86$); clearly a supply zone on the 1D chart, with price rejected twice. Selling pressure increase is observed in volume, with pre-confluence from Supertrend resistance (14.72$). Why critical? Liquidity pool here – retail stops clustered above, sweep (clearing) expected before breakout. Historical test: quick reversal after breakout in December 2025.

Main Resistance and Targets

Main resistances at 14.72$ (Supertrend and EMA20 confluence), 17.6650$ upside target (score 26). 14.72$ is strong on 3D and 1W: equal highs formation on the weekly chart, aligned with Fibonacci 0.382 extension. Volume profile shows low volume gap, requiring high conviction for breakout. 17.66$ is a 1W supply block; rejection zone from the 2025 peak, offering 3:1 R:R ratio. Their strength comes from multiple tests (4+ times) and ICT (Inner Circle Trader) methodology breaker blocks. Breakout would trigger rally, but fakeout risk is high in downtrend.

Liquidity Map and Big Players

The liquidity map shows stop hunting below 11.26$ (buy-side liquidity grab) and sell-side liquidity above 12.73$. Big players (whales) are accumulating positions around 2 supports (11.26$/10.85$) on the 1W timeframe – on-chain data shows accumulation signals. On 1D order flow, 12.73$ has created imbalance as a breaker block; if price clears it and reverses down, raid to 11.26$ expected. MTF 7-level confluence increases manipulation risk: low-volume sideways indicates big players trading within range. Volume delta negative, sellers dominant but exhaustion near.

Bitcoin Correlation

AVAX is highly correlated with BTC (%0.85+); BTC currently sideways at 91,255$, 24h -1.88%. BTC supports at 90,920$/88,187$/84,681$ critical – break here triggers cascade sell-off in altcoins. Resistances at 92,454$/94,151$/98,552$. BTC Supertrend bearish, rising dominance pressuring AVAX. Watch: BTC close below 90.9k triggers AVAX 11.26$; 92.4k breakout opens door to AVAX 14.72$. Altcoin caution: recovery without BTC rally hard under BTC dominance.

Trading Plan and Level-Based Strategy

Level-based outlook: bullish bias above 12.73$ hold (17.66$ target, R:R 1:3), short bias below (11.26$ test, 7.77$ target). Long entry on 11.26$ bounce, stop 11.00$; short on rejection, target 10.85$. MTF confirmation required – wait for 1D close. Detailed data for AVAX Spot Analysis and AVAX Futures Analysis. This outlook is not trading advice; do your own research, prioritize risk management (position risk 1-2%).