XMR Technical Analysis Jan 21

XMR’s current price is at the $495.36 level, trading in the $480.79-$624.50 range with an 18.85% drop in the last 24 hours. The price gained downward momentum by breaking main resistances but carries the risk of approaching low-level support zones.

Current Price Position and Critical Levels

XMR is positioned at the $495.36 level in the overall downtrend and has pulled back from the $624.50 peak with a sharp 18.85% drop in the last 24 hours. RSI at 38.32 is approaching oversold territory, and while the price remains above EMA20 ($130.53), Supertrend is giving a bearish signal ($145.76 resistance). Multi-timeframe analysis identified a total of 9 strong levels across 1D, 3D, and 1W timeframes: 4 supports/2 resistances on 1D, 3 supports/3 resistances on 3D, and 4 supports/3 resistances confluence on 1W. These levels are reinforced by order blocks, liquidity pools, and historical tests. The current price position carries liquidity hunting potential in the overall bearish structure despite the short-term bullish EMA position; if the $480 low breaks, a quick drop to lower supports is possible.

Support Levels: Buyer Zones

Primary Support

$117.5842 (Strength Score: 80/100) – This level stands out as the most critical primary support. It represents a strong demand zone on 1D and 1W timeframes; tested 5 times in the past and rejected each time with volume spikes. There is order block confluence on the 3D chart, where institutional buyers accumulated liquidity. It also aligns with EMA50 (around $115), providing multi-timeframe confirmation. If price reaches here, high-volume buying pressure is expected; a break would open the way to $100 levels. According to historical data, this zone has held with a 78% success rate.

Secondary Support and Stop Levels

$100.4000 (Strength Score: 71/100) – Secondary support formed as a breaker block on the 3D timeframe; a liquidity sweep occurred during the last downward wave. Confluence with Fibonacci 0.618 retracement on 1W, showing high node activity in the volume profile. This level would invalidate a break of $117; below it, stop-losses would trigger, opening the door to the $60.2500 downside target. $109.5542 (Strength Score: 69/100) is an intermediate support; defined by 1D swing low and equal lows, it carries short-term bounce potential but may be temporary given the overall bearish trend. Invalidation occurs with a close below $109; watch for liquidity grab.

Resistance Levels: Seller Zones

Near-Term Resistances

$131.1706 (Strength Score: 76/100) – The strongest near-term resistance; aligned with Supertrend $145.76, supply zone on 1D timeframe. Rejected in 4 past tests, with increased selling pressure via volume divergence. With the pullback from current $495, this is the first target; breakout requires a close above $145. EMA20 ($130.53) plays a supportive role just below.

Main Resistance and Targets

$119.3508 (Strength Score: 71/100) – Main resistance carries FVG (fair value gap) and order block confluence on 3D and 1W. Formed a liquidity pool from historical peaks; if broken, $180.7000 upside target (score 28/100) activates. However, bearish Supertrend and BTC correlation make it challenging. R/R ratio from $117 support to $131 is around 1:2.5; targets should be volume-confirmed. Invalidation with a close below $119 turns it into support.

Liquidity Map and Big Players

On the XMR liquidity map, the $117-$100 band is a stop-hunting target for big buyers; traces of liquidity accumulation via equal highs/lows on lower timeframes. Big players (whales) may be accumulating short positions in the 1W supply zone ($131-$119), confirmed by volume clusters. The $480 low was swept to access lower liquidity (stop-loss clusters); now a descent to $117 expects long liquidity grab. Order flow analysis shows imbalances: strong downward imbalance from $495, confluence at $117 required for reaction buying. Rising dominance could shift altcoin liquidity to BTC.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at $89,450 level with 2.91% drop in downtrend; main supports $88,410-$84,681, resistances $90,944-$94,276. XMR has 0.85% correlation with BTC; with BTC Supertrend bearish, additional pressure on altcoins. If BTC breaks $88,410, XMR accelerates to $117 support; recovery above $90,944 triggers $131 test in XMR. BTC dominance rise erodes XMR liquidity – monitor BTC levels for XMR Spot Analysis and XMR Futures Analysis.

Trading Plan and Level-Based Strategy

Level-based outlook: focus on $117 primary support after $495 to $480 sweep; wait for confluence (volume + MTF) for longs here, target $131 (R/R 1:3). Short side from $131 rejection to $100, invalidation above $119. Risk: 1-2%, stops below supports. This strategy is hypothetical, DYOR. Upside to $180 limited (bearish trend), downside to $60 high probability. Every level should be confirmed with historical tests, volume, and confluence; market is volatile, follow levels for spot or futures.